Showing posts with label investors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investors. Show all posts
Monday, June 29, 2009
Michael Jackson debt and death
Michael Jackson had a debt of nearly 0.5 billions of dollars. How to get this money from man who are cannot dance and sing anymore? Michael used more and more drugs, his health became more and more worse. Creditors fully understood this. What could be waiting for Jackson? Silent death in some years? Did he want to live anymore? But anyway he didnt decide it. Creditors had control under his life. Its not prosecutions, just thoughts. Thoughts how creditors could done their buisness. Way on what we got this all sound very commercial. At first - to make announces of new concerts , to increase attention. Then make some press conferences, etc. Even sell tickets. Tickets are suspiciously fast were sold in internet even for Michael Jackson concerts. Then to kill Michael. This event increasing Jackson's popularity to the sky again. Everything which were connected with Michael's name selling with incredeble speed. And more! Jackson had nearly 200 songs which were not published. In this way, men who doing buisness on Michael can get large more moeny! Large more then 70 millions which Michael could earn on gastrols.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Random thoughts
Our portfolio feeling better last time. Now we have drodown -0,23%. This drodown coz of falling gold prices but we are rather confidence of it. We see good resistance @900$. Our fundamental view on it wasnt changed. We are happy, coz our portfolio strategy we think is working, especially that we made real investment portfolio for 1st time in life. Other our picks filling good.
Last time i have a lot of global thought/professional dreams. At first was inspired by golden boy of 80x - Mikel Milken. He made in whole word sense junk bonds market in America. I read far time ago book about Wall Street in 80x and this really fun, interesting, scarry, sometimes inspired, emotional.. Book author James Stuart, name of book - "Gang of thieves from Wall Street". We can read a story of Mikel Milken, Ivan Boeski and others. 80x - was time of avidity on Wall Street. Do you think something was changed? ))). A dream - to MAKE MARKET in Ukraine. Now RTS conquers bigger and bigger market share of exchange operations in Ukraine. Regulation fund of RTS UKraine is only 12mln UAH. But i think it will hard to get a part of RTS, coz its a lot of market, market policy power, etc. So even with money its a question. It would be really cool to make liquidity in Ukranian market, derevatives, etc.
Other professional interest is on options. Need to work a lot with numbers, graps trading options, i dont like this much but anyway i feel this is good area for making money, huge less efficient than stock market. There are must be huge more "free lunches" here. For russian language readers can give a really nice blog of rus guy - Option trader .
Eric Nayman from UkrSocBank - here his blog made calculations of Herst index with target to find trending on financial markets. With this calculations he refutes Effective Market Hypothesis, EMH. Question of EMH was always worrieng me. Sometimes i think market Efficient/not efficient depending on how we thinking about it. Somelike thought become real :-). I trust that this phenomen we have in life, so why we cant have it even in scientific researches :-) especially on researchs of social proccess. EMH investigation from classical economic theory where buyer and seller are rational. But on banal philosophy we can to refute EMH easy. Why economists acknowledge trends in economy but not acknowledge trend in stock markets? This to process are influence one on other, so if one is trendive , other have to be trendive too? This sounds crazy and very simple? Maybe i just have small skill in economy? Other look have Victor Niedernhoffer. He is statistican and calculated that there is no trends on markets, but he dont trust in EMH. He dont trusts in trends but trust in conformities to law of motion of price.
Other old professional dream is to build dynamic model in which we could see a line of how economy sectors will grow/fall, in what sequences, how they will influence one on other, etc. I found deep scientific works on it. For example - Klein-Goldberg Model, Warton economic model. But to work on this theme need solid economy, econometic background.
We didnt find a good portfolio tool on free. Dont understand why. Is it hard to programm nice portfolio tool, which will calculate coefficints automaticaly?) Bullshit. In future we will program it by ourselves and it will be on our site ))).
Last time i have a lot of global thought/professional dreams. At first was inspired by golden boy of 80x - Mikel Milken. He made in whole word sense junk bonds market in America. I read far time ago book about Wall Street in 80x and this really fun, interesting, scarry, sometimes inspired, emotional.. Book author James Stuart, name of book - "Gang of thieves from Wall Street". We can read a story of Mikel Milken, Ivan Boeski and others. 80x - was time of avidity on Wall Street. Do you think something was changed? ))). A dream - to MAKE MARKET in Ukraine. Now RTS conquers bigger and bigger market share of exchange operations in Ukraine. Regulation fund of RTS UKraine is only 12mln UAH. But i think it will hard to get a part of RTS, coz its a lot of market, market policy power, etc. So even with money its a question. It would be really cool to make liquidity in Ukranian market, derevatives, etc.
Other professional interest is on options. Need to work a lot with numbers, graps trading options, i dont like this much but anyway i feel this is good area for making money, huge less efficient than stock market. There are must be huge more "free lunches" here. For russian language readers can give a really nice blog of rus guy - Option trader .
Eric Nayman from UkrSocBank - here his blog made calculations of Herst index with target to find trending on financial markets. With this calculations he refutes Effective Market Hypothesis, EMH. Question of EMH was always worrieng me. Sometimes i think market Efficient/not efficient depending on how we thinking about it. Somelike thought become real :-). I trust that this phenomen we have in life, so why we cant have it even in scientific researches :-) especially on researchs of social proccess. EMH investigation from classical economic theory where buyer and seller are rational. But on banal philosophy we can to refute EMH easy. Why economists acknowledge trends in economy but not acknowledge trend in stock markets? This to process are influence one on other, so if one is trendive , other have to be trendive too? This sounds crazy and very simple? Maybe i just have small skill in economy? Other look have Victor Niedernhoffer. He is statistican and calculated that there is no trends on markets, but he dont trust in EMH. He dont trusts in trends but trust in conformities to law of motion of price.
Other old professional dream is to build dynamic model in which we could see a line of how economy sectors will grow/fall, in what sequences, how they will influence one on other, etc. I found deep scientific works on it. For example - Klein-Goldberg Model, Warton economic model. But to work on this theme need solid economy, econometic background.
We didnt find a good portfolio tool on free. Dont understand why. Is it hard to programm nice portfolio tool, which will calculate coefficints automaticaly?) Bullshit. In future we will program it by ourselves and it will be on our site ))).
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Industry analysis. Financials.
Really it is hard to imagine any banks are in trouble with everything the US taxpayer has given up for them....
It is widely agreed that the banks are undercapitalized.
Further confirmation that the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets comes from Goldman Sachs’ Financial Stress Index (FSI). This index includes four factors related to the degree of impairment of financial markets: counterparty risk (US dollar 3-month LIBOR-OIS), liquidity risk (MBS to treasury repo differentials), refunding risk (commercial paper outstanding) and broader risk aversion (percentage of monies held in money-market mutual funds in relation to equity market capitalization).
FDIC's Fund Reserve Ration Plunges to 0.27% of Deposits. Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, released the latest information on “problem” banks on Wednesday. The list now includes 305 institutions, up from 252 at the end of 2008. We have had 36 bank failures this year and if no more than a quarter of the “problem” institutions fail, we will be over 110 bank failures for the year. But i think thats a delay indicator. Bank closures are not a leading indicator of economic health and can continue for some time even after the economy begins to recover. A lot from deposits will be invested. We havent much risk on it now. President Barack Obama on Wednesday afternoon signed into law two major housing bills, one of which would allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to temporarily borrow as much as $500 billion from the Treasury Department to protect the deposits of bank customers.
On the financials - we can use GS as an indicator of health. Goldman Sachs (GS) is one of the few companies with increased profit estimates in the marketplace today. Over the past 90 days their current quarter profit estimates have increased from $1.92 a share to $2.44 a share, a 27% increase. Likewise the next quarter estimates and the year profit estimates have also moved higher with the analysts that cover the stock.
Some banks announced that they will be able to begin to repay the government.
We see that bank's CDS become to cost less.
Goverment are all in financials, they will not give one more time possibility to drop.
The Fed, in a report issued Thursday, said commercial banks averaged $38.153 billion in daily borrowing over the week that ended Wednesday. That was down slightly from $38.155 billion in the week ending May 20. Investment firms didn't draw any loans over the past week from the Fed program. In the prior week the firms also took a pass on the emergency loans, something that hadn't happened since early September. Firms drew just $482 million in the week that ended May 13. Good trend.
Conclusion If nothing will be changed - we will see big growth in financials. It will not be exponential, just strong selfpowered trend. We have risks, but more we growing in financials - less risks we have. More financials shares getting up - more confidence crodw will have on it. More confidence crowd will have - less wholes in balance sheets we will see. Governments main target - to keep crowd confidence about finacials growing. So we will see a proccess which very nice described by Soros theory of reflexivity. Banks are good look by classic fundamentals, exept wholes in their balance sheets. But i write above how rather quick this wholes can disappear. The contrarian opinion analyses saying that financials are interesting for long. The most people just saying about stability growth in financials but still dont make big bets on it. So, nice potentional for growth, maybe only speculative now, but speculative growth can be a reason for a next fundamental growth.
It is widely agreed that the banks are undercapitalized.
Further confirmation that the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets comes from Goldman Sachs’ Financial Stress Index (FSI). This index includes four factors related to the degree of impairment of financial markets: counterparty risk (US dollar 3-month LIBOR-OIS), liquidity risk (MBS to treasury repo differentials), refunding risk (commercial paper outstanding) and broader risk aversion (percentage of monies held in money-market mutual funds in relation to equity market capitalization).
FDIC's Fund Reserve Ration Plunges to 0.27% of Deposits. Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, released the latest information on “problem” banks on Wednesday. The list now includes 305 institutions, up from 252 at the end of 2008. We have had 36 bank failures this year and if no more than a quarter of the “problem” institutions fail, we will be over 110 bank failures for the year. But i think thats a delay indicator. Bank closures are not a leading indicator of economic health and can continue for some time even after the economy begins to recover. A lot from deposits will be invested. We havent much risk on it now. President Barack Obama on Wednesday afternoon signed into law two major housing bills, one of which would allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to temporarily borrow as much as $500 billion from the Treasury Department to protect the deposits of bank customers.
On the financials - we can use GS as an indicator of health. Goldman Sachs (GS) is one of the few companies with increased profit estimates in the marketplace today. Over the past 90 days their current quarter profit estimates have increased from $1.92 a share to $2.44 a share, a 27% increase. Likewise the next quarter estimates and the year profit estimates have also moved higher with the analysts that cover the stock.
Some banks announced that they will be able to begin to repay the government.
We see that bank's CDS become to cost less.
Goverment are all in financials, they will not give one more time possibility to drop.
The Fed, in a report issued Thursday, said commercial banks averaged $38.153 billion in daily borrowing over the week that ended Wednesday. That was down slightly from $38.155 billion in the week ending May 20. Investment firms didn't draw any loans over the past week from the Fed program. In the prior week the firms also took a pass on the emergency loans, something that hadn't happened since early September. Firms drew just $482 million in the week that ended May 13. Good trend.
Conclusion If nothing will be changed - we will see big growth in financials. It will not be exponential, just strong selfpowered trend. We have risks, but more we growing in financials - less risks we have. More financials shares getting up - more confidence crodw will have on it. More confidence crowd will have - less wholes in balance sheets we will see. Governments main target - to keep crowd confidence about finacials growing. So we will see a proccess which very nice described by Soros theory of reflexivity. Banks are good look by classic fundamentals, exept wholes in their balance sheets. But i write above how rather quick this wholes can disappear. The contrarian opinion analyses saying that financials are interesting for long. The most people just saying about stability growth in financials but still dont make big bets on it. So, nice potentional for growth, maybe only speculative now, but speculative growth can be a reason for a next fundamental growth.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Tuesday's preperation
Due to TraderFeed's statistical analyses we can expect trend down to day. article . Also Dr. Bret said that guys from quantifiableedges and markettells to the similar conclusion due their statistical analyses. As i wrote some below, yesterday we saw strong trend up on light volume. So we can suppose that instutionals investors wasnt on the market yesterday and this up move wasnt important for a market in more long perspective.
Its came more realistic when todays market drivers were publicated. "U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to Record-Low Pace; Permits Decline"
Tim Sykes saying: "No trades on Friday due to my moving apartments…lots of potential plays due to stock promoters being back in the game biiiigtime…" So we really can expect a lot of good patterns in pennystocks for short.
LBAS - potentional short. Look for sidemove. This stock was up clear on manipulations.
BCRX, LBAS - pennystocks for short, but no good technical patterns do it now.
Stocks which are today's drivers. Positive news background before the marekt:
GS, MS, MGM
Negative news background - MXB, IVZ
When market will open, try to evaluate in what measure news in the market and if they have possiblity to move this stocks more up
Its came more realistic when todays market drivers were publicated. "U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to Record-Low Pace; Permits Decline"
Tim Sykes saying: "No trades on Friday due to my moving apartments…lots of potential plays due to stock promoters being back in the game biiiigtime…" So we really can expect a lot of good patterns in pennystocks for short.
LBAS - potentional short. Look for sidemove. This stock was up clear on manipulations.
BCRX, LBAS - pennystocks for short, but no good technical patterns do it now.
Stocks which are today's drivers. Positive news background before the marekt:
GS, MS, MGM
Negative news background - MXB, IVZ
When market will open, try to evaluate in what measure news in the market and if they have possiblity to move this stocks more up
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