Showing posts with label portfolio stakes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label portfolio stakes. Show all posts

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Thoughts adding on standart deviation

Mistake here. Look to this
In last post i wrote that our portfolio standart deviation is 30% versus market 64%. In real - our standart deviation in large more lower. So our risks are minimal. As we have long/short strategy with full balance long/short side standart deviation from long compensates standart deviation on shorts and vice versa. Other factor that make our risks lower - stocks correllation with index. Our diversification efficient , as avarage correllation on our portfolio 47%.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Portfolio. Stakes overview


BCS (current result +9,58%) - we see what we wanted to see. BCS was really attractive and now we have $13.5bn deal to sell its Barclays Global Investors unit to BlackRock.
DW, USG, TECUA - nothing special we had on this stocks, sector.
VOXX - before this stock show its weakness but yesterday we had good report on retail sales. This catalyst pushed stock huge higher, but then we saw pullback. So nothing special now. Just holding short.
MSFT - having some talks about their search engine Bing which they started on 1st of June. Microsoft invested nearly 100mln in this project. Also have talks about their products. They will not sell their own fin program, will make own antivirus program. So with good balance sheet and strong fundametals this stock is on the move now.
IBM - feeling good. They improve their buisness activity now. Looking for oportunities deals. They opened a new center in China to drive the development of high tech railroads, builds networked security system in Chicago, takes social networking to its channel partners, etc.
SOHU - no changes. Exelent fundamentals.
ABFS, CNW, VMED, MHK - no changes.
ABX, NEM, HMY - we see a range this week in gold between 965$ and 945$. We assume gold prices falling in short term period. Our middle and long view is the same.
FWRD - we saw huge up on this due analyst upgraded by KeyBanc Capital Mkts. Bullshit :-) .
SPWRA - up move in oil prices helped this stock to go higher. But now we see nice resistance in oil. We shouldnt expect large up move in oil in short term as we think this growth explaining not by increasing demand on oil as commoditie but just as safe active, inflation hedge, etc.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Portfolio. New stakes.



New stakes
Long. Technology
IBM
SOHU
MSFT

IBM
MSN rank 8
large non-US revenue base
IBM's Q109 results indicate its strong position in emerging markets, which should continue to help drive growth.
Company has focused on driving its bottom line through cost cutting efforts. It re-affirmed EPS guidance for the full year of 2009 and 2010. Although, revenue is not expected to grow by much, expecting margin improvements in 2009.

MSFT
MSN rank 8
Big hedge fund support
Nice classical coefficients

SOHU
MSN rank 9
Sohu - is the second-largest Internet portal and one of the most well-known online brands in China. Sohu's pipeline for its new online games remains strong and is expected to drive meaningful growth in late 2009 and 2010.
The company spun-off part of its gaming division Changyou.com via an ADS offering, which is expected to increase its user base and help gain shares in the MMORPG (massively multi-player online role-playing game) market. We are also encouraged by the company's growing cash balance as well as its debt-free balance sheet.
We believe that the current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value. Concerns related to online ad spending, as consumers remain cautious in their spending.

Shorts

Industrial Goods
MHK - textile
SPWRA - general conducator
VOXX - Electronics Wholesale
TECUA - General Building Materials

Also we shorted aditional 700 shared on DW for portfolio long/short balancing.