Тест инвестиционной идеи с PennyStocks

Что мы делали?
Взяли все акции, которые торгуются до 3$ (а лучше и до 1$) на американских фондовых рынках.
И на всю выборку сделали 2 фильтра 1). Нынешняя стоимость акции должна быть как минимум в 20 раз меньше, нежели максимумы за 2 последних года . 2). Оценили все бумаги по мультипликаторам
Цель исследования была найти акции компаний, которые имеют право и силы существовать на этой земле. Акции данных компаний очень волатильны в относительном значение. Скажем для них не составить труда вырости в один момент на 1000%. Так как был проведен фильтр по мультипликатором, можем предполагать, что ни одна из этих компаний не обанкротиться. Кроме того, данные акции могут взять себе на заметку сток промоутеры. Деятельность стоук промоутеров видна даже для не большого профессионала в пенни стокс. Плюс, данные компании могут быть поглощены другими участниками рынка. + Тайминг. Толпа сейчас готова покупать и продолжать ралли. Итог - имеем хорошее соотношение риск\потенциальный доход. Скриншот портфеля с нашими "пиками" ниже. Пишите мне в скайп - dmytrenkoartem. Всегда рад обмену и обсуждению торговых\инвестиционных идей.

Отчетность по банкам - STI, KEY

Завтра перед рынком в свет выйдет отчетность двух банков из нашего портфеля.
STI - SUNTRUST BANKS
KEY - KEYCORP
Привожу графики компаний


Посреди торгового дня имеем падение обоих.
STI теряет около 8,5%, KEY - 7,5%.
Несмотря на хорошую отчетность банков, в частности GS, JPM, C - мы не можем ожидать столь же хорошей прибыли от STI, KEY. GS, JPM - заработали деньги в основном на инвестиционном банкинге, на трейдинге. STI, KEY - имеют же более классическую бизнес модель. У них отсутствует инвестиционное подразделение. Все ихние продукты направлены на кредитование разного рода. По "не инвестиционной" части отчетности JPM, мы видели явно плохие результаты. Логично экстраполировать эту часть бизнеса JPM на STI, KEY, так как она построена на аналогичных продуктах. Мы ожидаем плохой отчетности, но в тоже время смотрим что последнее падение котировок STI, KEY подразумевает очень плохую отчетность. Столько резкое падение перед выходом earnings, может привести к резкой фиксации шортов, после выхода. Поэтому мы рассматриваем вариант закрытие коротких позиций по STI, KEY в конце торгового дня.

Guys! Need your opinion! (Ребята, нужно ваше мнение!)

Guys! Need your opinion. My english is not so good to represent all my thoughts. On my current english language level i cant show all picture that i see. I wanna write about economic processes, philosophy, psyhology of trading/investing, more details on strategies, opinions, etc. One my english reader said that he just leave my page because its hard for him to read my writes on enlish. He said that my grammer, style is poor. When i began writes on english i wanna to attract readers from whole world. I understand that its too hard to make good audience from whole world with this poor english. So when i write on english my foreign readers cant understand me fully and with comfort and russian speaken readers cant understand me fully too. Plus, as i wrote above, i cant write all my thoughts in english. So guys, i wanna to listen your opinions. Its really important for me. Leave opinions in comments please.

Ребята! Мне необходимо ваше мнение! Мой английский не настолько хорош, что бы передать все мои мысли. На моем текущем уровне английского языка, я не могу вам показать всю картину, которою вижу я. Хочу писать об экономических процессах, философии, психологии трейдинга\инвестирования, более детально рассматривать стратегии, мнения и т.п. Один мой англоязычный читатель сказал мне, что он вынужден покидать мою страницу быстро, так как ему тяжело воспринимать мой английский - грамматику, прерывистые предложения.. Когда я начинал писать на английском, хотел привель читателей со всего мира. Но я понимаю что сложно создать хорошую аудиторию англоязычных читателей с моим не высоким уровнем английского языка. Таким образом я нахожусь "и не там, и не там". Англоязычным читателям сложно меня понимать из за некоректного английского, а русскоязычным конечно же тяжело читать английский. Таким образом я не могу выдавать хороший продукт и для тех и для тех. И мне хотелось бы писать о более сложных вещах, написание которых на английском мне очень затруднительно. Ребята, очень хочу услышать ваше мнение! Пожалуйста, оставьте комментарий.! Спасибо!

Amendment on standart deviation

I am sorry for not correct numbers on standart deviation.
It were written here and here .
Our real standart deviation - 7%.
We will speak about it when we will post our full portfolio report.

Random thoughts

Delphi method is popular tool in managment. I think it can be used in macro trading style nice. We can find all info on separate company but its hard to see full picture alone on macro trading. So in hedge fund we can have 4-5 analysts on macro. In general analyst - the man who just collect info and making calculations. In classical terms, analyst is the man who dont give buy/sell recommendations. Practice when analyst give recommendations began with increasing broker's competition. Appeared star analyst, appeared sell side and buy side analysts. It became like a PR for brokers - "Look to as! Our analyst gave so good recommendation! He is superstar!" So we have 4-5 macro analyst and portfolio manager. Every period of time they make conference, where analyst saying buy/sell/neutral thesis. Portfolio manager collect this thesis and then ALONE make investment decision.
ETF on commodities. Next time i think we will not use commodities's company but will use commodities ETFs. For example now we have gold stake. 3 gold mining companies which are represent 10% from our portfolio. ETF - GLD better represent our investment idea. Also we find interesting new tool - ETFs on hedge fund's index. For example - QAI, which represemt multi strategy index.
What can be a catalyst for market downmove?
As we saw dollar weakness last quarter we could see better earnings for export companies - but its already in earnings consensuns forecast i think. But anyway, some suprises we can see. Oracle already reported good earnings. Good signal for us, as we have big stake in technology - 22% from portfolio. And also our companies in technology are selling products abroad. So with support from other strong fundamentals, we would see nice earnings.
We have H&S on S&P which everybody see know. So it could be activated but can be work with some deformations. Maybe down breakout will not be so deep as on classics tech analysis. Consumer numbers in USA after 3 strong month announced bad. Manipulation last 3 times? What will be if other economic data will be bad again? I think economic data have to be trendive. Its strange when we have this random numbers. I am not sure about this, will speak about this when i will become better in macroeconomic.
Its not effective in investing to use classics, all which using other players. Nut this is a start point for creative. No many other ways. I am agree with Charl Poper - new in science - is finding mistakes/upgrading old theories. All progress usually were made by this way.

Ready to share all information\strategies

Dear guys!
I am ready to share all information that i know, all thoughts that i have, all strategies that we use.. Do you know how many time hedge fund managers spent on speaking with colleagues? They speak a lot, coz they want to see real market picture, want to find new investing ideas. When you communicate with people, you thought becoming more clear, you find new ideas in you thoughts, you find some in thoughts of other people, so its great! Its hard to find good professionals on financials markets in Ukraine, but i am sure we have some number of strong professionals in Ukraine. Its greate if you write me from other countries. We can share expirience, speak about local markets... Maybe work together.. Dont forget that my native language is russian or ukranian. Add me to your skype.
My skype - dmytrenkoartem

Can hedge fund be managing by 2 people?

Can hedge fund be managing by 2 people? We will find out it. Today's evening i serfed hedge fund's websites. I found that a lot of great hedge fund's are using quantitive strategies the most. A lot of their employes are Ph.D. in mathematics, physics and they are even not competent in finance, economics. They are working with retrieval of data and even dont know from what assets data are. The bright example is Jim Simon's Renaissance fund. We have a strong trend in markets - they becoming more and more mathematical. We can found less and less psyhology their. Program trading prospers. Methods that were used in daytrading are not actual now coz market became hybrid. Now reading ribbon is not actual, prints a random, we cant find how NYSE specialist works. So less psyhology, more numbers. A lot of people will go out from trading in some years coz they cannot competite with programs. In hedge funds we can found so many analysts, mathematics, statisticans. They can work with so much data, to find large more ideas, to test more.. Ofcoz its costs big money to have this quality staff.. So to have this, hedge fund have to big really big sized. But is it possible to beat this groups of the smartest people with 2 people? I trust that we can. Having not so big capital we can concentrate all on few best ideas which can give us even better returns. Trust in God, trust in us :-) . Be with love ! :-)

Evaluation portfolio's investments ideas

Our portfolio is in small positive zone now, but we are rather confidence about its future nice perfomance. Saying that investment ideas on what portfolio is build now are working. We saw that our portfolio feeling much better on good trendive days where we can saw big changes in S&P. Until today we saw only 3-5 those days on June.
I want to acknowledge that we did some mistake with thin stock. This mistake are in risk managment area. We have some think stocks like DW, TECUA, VOXX. If we would have news on it which will push stock much , we will have big problems to cover our more than 1000 shares stakes if we will need it coz avarage trading volume on this stocks are somelike 100k , etc.

Interesting situation. Stock - WCG

I want to acknowledge that i am not experience stock daytrader. So this situation looks pretty interesting for me. Need to know what behavior to chose when we see something like this. Market in stong down trend, WCG too. I was looking to this stock as its in our portfolio with short position. Nothing special beofre 18-00 Kyiv time. After big down move volume sharply increased and we saw 25c up move. Hm..Sell? Not sure but lets suppose that we sold this for example @17.63. We know that this stock is weak fundamental, so why it will be attractive even intraday on this strong down trend? But if we were enetered @17.63 we should have stop loss , coz up move didnt stop. Ok. Lets look for some bearish candle and volume fading. At price 17.85 we saw something like this. Short again! But again we have stop loss on new uup move and big volume! Heh. What it was? Just fund's buying large stake? Or maybe some speculation? When i am writing this post price comeback down to 17.7$.

Knowing yourself weaknesses you become stronger

Many writers/philosofers tried to build a model of really successfull people. They researched bios of great humans and than tried to found same in character traits, type of thought. For me, I think its critical to know own weak sides. When you know your weak sides you can concentrate on what dont using your weak sides. You can find a best areas for you character, skills. One of managment classics, Peter Druker, were saying that we need to improve our strong sides and its really more important and will give us better results. For example i am not ashamed to be acknowledged that i havent enaough discipline to work intraday now. Maybe its just because i havent chances to concentrate only on this. I understand it fully that at least i will not concentrate only on daytrading i will lose money on it. So i will not even try to put in one daytrading and portfolio running. If i will do so my productivity will be less. I dont like to work with details and work with numbers. So i will prefer to work with philophy, ideas, macro stuff - all ares where i could fully use my type of thought to get bigger pleasure and better results. So guys, concentrate on your strong sides and work on areas where you can use it fully! Be true with youself about your weak sides! Go for better results!

Economic reforms - new stakes in portfolio

Now we have so many stakes that i even cant post full screen shot of portfolio :-). In future we will concentrate only on best ideas and we will have less stakes. Just need to keep normal level of diversification. But on other we need to remember that diversification mean from ignorance as Warren Buffet saying :-) .
Before we had an idea to long canadian banks due to its strong fundamentals and financial health. Today we realesed this idea by hedging with short big american banks. We looked to our database and found that STI, JPM, KEY have to be the weakest in near future. Also with shorting this banks we hedged it with our old idea to long CSCO from technology. Large growth of broadbend in Asia will support solid CSCO fundamentals.
Also we now have a hedged stakes in healthcare. Due to Obama healthcare reform plan we shorted health insurance companies and longed pharmaceuticals companies which making generic drugs. So we shorted WCG, UNH and longed JNJ, PFE.
Thanks Victor from Belarus, he will program for us portfolio tool which we need so. It will calculate all numbers we need.

Fund Report

Our fund report you can download here
FundReport
or here
Report

Our potentional stakes

Our potentional stakes
Canadian bank
Canadian financial institutions mostly avoided the worst of the fallout from the credit crisis due to tougher regulation and a more conservative culture that kept them away from risky credit derivatives that hurt so many of their competitors in Europe and on Wall Street.
The problem is that retail banking – one of the main engines of the sector – is deteriorating, with earnings collectively down 10% from the second quarter of 2008.
For expample we are looking for buying TD stake.
Energy/commodities stocks
We are bullish on comodities mostly not by that we see potentional demand increasing but mostly by inflation expectations. We are not sure that real economy demand on commodities will increase huge. We assume “W” vivid structure of economy recovery. With second down wave on august/september 2009.
We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly. For our fund we wanna to acumulate positions in gold, silver, stocks which are producers of commodities. The focus of our fund will be on silver. We have to be happy buy silver companies but silver companies is very expensive on fundamentals. Better way just to buy silver as metal.
On oil OPEK will not increase supply until oil prices will rich 100$. For most OPEK countries 75$ - comfortable price. Other positive on oil was Goldman upgrades to 85$. Before last rally they said about oil growth and then we saw 150$ price .
So we dont saying that this type of stocks will growth, we just saying that they will be strenghter than market.
Technology
Even now we see a nice up in buisness activity of technology stocks. They have a good balance sheets with large cash positions and ready to invest in new buisnesses, innovations. We already have a large stake in technology but we see opportunities even to increase it. Candidats are DELL, CSCO, ORCL

Portfolio. Stakes overview

BCS (current result +9,58%) - we see what we wanted to see. BCS was really attractive and now we have $13.5bn deal to sell its Barclays Global Investors unit to BlackRock.
DW, USG, TECUA - nothing special we had on this stocks, sector.
VOXX - before this stock show its weakness but yesterday we had good report on retail sales. This catalyst pushed stock huge higher, but then we saw pullback. So nothing special now. Just holding short.
MSFT - having some talks about their search engine Bing which they started on 1st of June. Microsoft invested nearly 100mln in this project. Also have talks about their products. They will not sell their own fin program, will make own antivirus program. So with good balance sheet and strong fundametals this stock is on the move now.
IBM - feeling good. They improve their buisness activity now. Looking for oportunities deals. They opened a new center in China to drive the development of high tech railroads, builds networked security system in Chicago, takes social networking to its channel partners, etc.
SOHU - no changes. Exelent fundamentals.
ABFS, CNW, VMED, MHK - no changes.
ABX, NEM, HMY - we see a range this week in gold between 965$ and 945$. We assume gold prices falling in short term period. Our middle and long view is the same.
FWRD - we saw huge up on this due analyst upgraded by KeyBanc Capital Mkts. Bullshit :-) .
SPWRA - up move in oil prices helped this stock to go higher. But now we see nice resistance in oil. We shouldnt expect large up move in oil in short term as we think this growth explaining not by increasing demand on oil as commoditie but just as safe active, inflation hedge, etc.

Monday. Portfolio

Coefficient which we will calculate for our portfolio
Alpha. To see how effectively we running fund.
Beta. To see fund volatility.
Long's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including long's beta). Do we really bought strong stocks?
Short's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including short's beta). Do we really sold weak stocks?
Drawing a chart of fund valuation every day.
Other coefficient that figured in portfolio theory is not usefull for us know. 1st because we havent history of our fund. 2nd - its developed for more long term investing.

Portfolio. New stakes.

New stakes
Long. Technology
IBM
SOHU
MSFT

IBM
MSN rank 8
large non-US revenue base
IBM's Q109 results indicate its strong position in emerging markets, which should continue to help drive growth.
Company has focused on driving its bottom line through cost cutting efforts. It re-affirmed EPS guidance for the full year of 2009 and 2010. Although, revenue is not expected to grow by much, expecting margin improvements in 2009.

MSFT
MSN rank 8
Big hedge fund support
Nice classical coefficients

SOHU
MSN rank 9
Sohu - is the second-largest Internet portal and one of the most well-known online brands in China. Sohu's pipeline for its new online games remains strong and is expected to drive meaningful growth in late 2009 and 2010.
The company spun-off part of its gaming division Changyou.com via an ADS offering, which is expected to increase its user base and help gain shares in the MMORPG (massively multi-player online role-playing game) market. We are also encouraged by the company's growing cash balance as well as its debt-free balance sheet.
We believe that the current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value. Concerns related to online ad spending, as consumers remain cautious in their spending.

Shorts
Industrial Goods
MHK - textile
SPWRA - general conducator
VOXX - Electronics Wholesale
TECUA - General Building Materials

Also we shorted aditional 700 shared on DW for portfolio long/short balancing.

Portfolio overview

My thanks to SeekingAlpha . Its wonderfull resource!
For today we have fully balanced portfolio on Beta coefficient.
BCS - 3000 shares
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
4,9 14,63 9,6 0,63 28,97
Can Slim Rating - 82
Key Abu Dhabi investor on Barclays sold his stake yesterday. Analysts began to speak that this is a time for profit taking on financials. We have a risk that we will see self powered down trend on financials on this catalyst. But also we can suppose thats nothing fundamentaly change on this and BCS is still attractive for investors and they could use this possibility to long BCS.
Paulson & Co hedge fund have short stake on Barclays @16.86
BCS havent now institutional support.
If BCS will not find large investor in short time - we will close this position.


Below our gold stakes. About our look on precious metals i wrote before.
NEM
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
34,17 7,85 0,82 2,73 11,66
Can Slim Rating 74
MSN Rank 9


ABX
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
52,31 4,11 1,1 2,14 20,31
Can Slim Rating 73
MSN Rank 6


HMY
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
15,12 6,29 0 1,4 32,35
Can Slim Rating 93
MSN Rank 9

Shorts
Our trucking picks
Trucking shipment data is often a gauge of overall economic health, because truckers haul more than two-thirds of all U.S. manufactured and retail goods.
The American Trucking Association's advance seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index fell 2.2 percent in April, after plunging 4.5 percent in March.
Compared with April 2008, tonnage shrank 13.2 percent, marking the worst year-over-year decrease of the current cycle and the largest drop in thirteen years.
We can expect trucking growth when we will see recovering in real sectors of economy. This is sector which have delay from overall economy. We are looking to USA indicators of buissness cycle. Here we can see that down trend is over. So lets keep eyes on it closely.

CNW
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-15,53 1,3 3,34 -15,82
Can Slim Rating 61
MSN Rank 4


ABFS
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
282,75 0,4 2,2 1,15 -5,34
Can Slim Rating 45
MSN Rank 6


FWRD
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
20,34 14,88 1,4 2,81 -3,21
Can Slim Rating 20
MSN Rank 4

Media

VMED
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-41,57 2,2 0,86 -16,46
Can Slim Rating 59
MSN Rank 3

Industrial goods - Building Materials
DW
USG



Our portfolio wasnt hedged yesterday and overnight. All short positions was opened today in the morning

Idea on gold

I see that many hedge fund managers are long now on gold or gold trusts , etc. I think its not just hedging in classical term. We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly.