Todays market was driven by news that US Banks need less refinance from the government due to stress test results. Other market's driver was better then expected data on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So S&P gained 1.7%, but ofcoz we had some good oportunities to short.
1st trade was with BGFV. This stock was on my stock list with comment "bearish pattern after big gain after earnings realased". Shorted not far from the market open @11.61. 1st target was support at 11$. I saw how BGFV was traded at 11$ and waited for breakout to add 1k shares more. Short one more 1k shares @10.94. After this i moved my stops to 11.10 and 11.15. Breakout was false, so i was stopped, but still had a profit. Knew that this stock had potentional to go more lower and reentered @10.98. Stop @11.20. So after position add, and reenter I closed all trades with BGFV with profit 80$.
2nd trade - DOW - this chemical gigant annonced about stock selling to refinance their debts.. So market had some negative mood on this stock and technical pattern was ok to short. I shorted @15.61 . I didnt wait for the range breakout, but know that with big big % of success it will be breakout to go lower. I expect that dow will fill gap 13.5 - 15.5 more actively, but market was strong, so i closed nearly 15$ dollars support at price - 15.15. So other 460$ for profit.
TXT - this wasnt my pick. I saw it on some internet page. This stock still trading in nice range. I shorted @11.57 nearly high board range. But for a petty my internet connection was broked for nearly 1 hour and i didnt see how TXT was traded at support and then we had a reverse. A petty, but a lose for this trade - 210$
4th trade for today - BAC . Opened with price gain at 11.76 due positive in bank sector and traded in range between this level and 12.00. I bought at breakout of 12.05 and still hold this position with profit 500$.
Today I had a problems with borrowing stocks on ThinkOrSwim, so I lost some good trade opportunities like AHD, CTIC.
Found nice site - http://stocktwits.com/ . Here we can see something like voice of crowd on individual stocks.
Day result - plus 820$
Showing posts with label spx. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spx. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
Contrarian idicator - put/call ratio. Betting against the crowd
Put/call ratio is widely use sentiment indicator, but i think it is anyway usefull coz its not derivative indicator which does not distort market information. We just see volume of call options versus volume of put options without distortion.
$PC (in esignal) - put/call ratio calculeted on CBOE. It is contrarian indicator. When the ratio is too small we have critical optimism on markets and soon we will see reversal of the market. It ofcoz working to find critical pessimism too.
Historically index options have a skew toward more put buying. This is because of the index put option hedging done by portfolio managers - this is also why the total put/call ratio is not the ideal ratio (it is polluted by this hedging volume). Recall that the idea of contrarian sentiment analysis is to measure the pulse of the speculative option crowd, who, on balance, is wrong. We should therefore be looking at the equity-only ratio for a purer measure of the speculative trader. In addition, the critical threshold levels should be dynamic, chosen from the previous 52-week highs and lows of the series, adjusting for trends in the data.
The smoothed(build MA4 or MA10) put/call ratio is useful good. Put/call ratios are best used in combination with other sentiment indicators and perhaps a price-based (i.e., momentum) indicator. More elaborate mathematical massaging of the data (i.e., de-trending by differencing the series) can also help.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Trading Idea with AXP
American Express (NYSE: AXP - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $361 million or 31 cents per share. AXP's adjusted profit came in at 32 cents per share, beating analysts' forecasts of 12 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AXP.
AXP opened this morning at $22.69. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.05 and a high of $24.10. As of 11:25, AXP is trading at $23.74, up $2.77 (13.2%). The chart for AXP looks bearish and S&P gives AXP a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $17 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just two months as long as AXP is above $14 at June expiration. American Express would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money.
AXP has shown support around $18 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AXP.
AXP opened this morning at $22.69. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.05 and a high of $24.10. As of 11:25, AXP is trading at $23.74, up $2.77 (13.2%). The chart for AXP looks bearish and S&P gives AXP a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $17 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just two months as long as AXP is above $14 at June expiration. American Express would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money.
AXP has shown support around $18 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AXP.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
ETF - RSX
Investor sentiment on RSX is
87% Bullish and 13% Bearish
http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=rsx
Investor sentiment on RSX from ITInvest
70% RTS long – IT Invest forum gurus.. (52 vs 22).
Sector RSX
Industrial Materials
22.04
Energy
37.95
Utilities
11.37
Telecommunication
13.05
Financial Services
9.14
Company Symbol % Assets
Gazprom Neft ADR N/A 5.27
Gazprom OAO (EDR) N/A 8.15
Lukoil Company ADR N/A 9.5
MOBILE TELSYS OJSC MBT
3.98
NK Rosneft' OAO N/A 8.09
Oao Novatek GDR N/A 4.67
Rostelecom ADR N/A 4.25
Sberbank Rossii OAO N/A 5.91
Surgutneftegas OAO (ADR) N/A 7.36
VIMPEL COMMUN VIP
3.89
In the World Bank’s report on Russia, it is estimated that Russia will have a 4.5% contraction for 2009, a drastic change from its previously projected 3% growth back in November. The financial crisis could ultimately create 5.8 million impoverished Russians. The Russian government is forecasting a 2.2% contraction in GDP for the year.
It is thought that unemployment could reach 12% and poverty rates will be at 15.5%.
The World Bank lauded Russia’s anti-crisis program with $85 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP, put into its banking sector, which was able to head off a financial panic.
As follows from materials to meeting of government, Minenergo of Russian FEDERATION suggests to correct investprogrammy coming from the specified prognosis of electro-consumption in a country. A new prognosis is foreseen by the decline of consumption in 2009 on 4,5% with the subsequent getting up in 2010 – on 0,1%, in 2011 – on 1,5%, in 2012 – on 3%. We will remind that the primary variant of investprogramm, made by RAO of «EES of Russia», came from stable growth of consumption of electric power at the level of 4-5% in a year.
In brief:
Economy – inflation from March, 31 for April, 6 was 0,2 %, from the beginning of month – also 0,2 %. For period from the beginning of 2009 inflation attained 5,6 %
Gazprom – the rating agency of Fitch appropriated the eurobonds of gazprom on 400 million swiss francs the expected rating of «BBB»
Bank sector – according to first vice-chairman TSB And. Ulyukaeva, TSB can reduce the rate of refunding «within the limits of month»
Energy – Government of Russian FEDERATION on Thursday will consider a question about the projects of investprogramm of subjects of electroenergy on 2009 and on the planned period 2010 and 2011 years. Now the departments of types discuss adjustment of of a particular branch general chart on a period to 2020 year. Also a government will consider the specified program of anti crises measures on 2009 and will discuss motion of implementation of measures, directed on making healthy of situation in a financial sector and separate industries of economy
Gazprom – the volume of output of eurobonds of company is megascopic from 400 to 500 million swiss francs
Tatneft' is a booty after 1 apt. 2009 went down on 2,3 % to 6,3 million т. of oil. These information fully reflect a situation with the booty of company on the whole. On results 2008, record at oil prices, a company succeeded to save the level of booty at the level of former year (25,8 million т.). In 2009 in the conditions of low oil prices and sharp reduction of demand on power mediums the booty of Tatneft, by our estimations, at the best will attain 25 million т., that supposes its falling on 3 % to the level 2008
YUTK – a net income on RSBU in 2008 made 557 million RUB (against a 1,827 milliard of RUB in 2007, decline in 3,2 of time). Growth of help on 5,6 % to 20,884 milliard of RUB, charges – on 10,4 %, to 15,754 milliard of RUB
YUTK – the board of directors intends to recommend shareholders on annual collection in June to confirm dividends after 2008 in size of a 0,02822 RUB on usual and 0,0573 RUBS on a preference share. On results 2007 YUTK paid 0,0821 RUBS and 0,1879 RUBS accordingly
Key events
10 april
Policy: continuation 4-daily the VII all-russian power forum of "TEK of Russia in XXI age"
Rosneft': «closing» of register of Udmurtnefti before meeting of shareholders' of May, 26
Gas industry is oil: consideration FRONT of matter of company about prices on nefteprodukty
ТНК-SR: consideration FRONT of matter of company about prices on nefteprodukty
MTS: consideration business FRONT in regard to a company
NLMK: examination of claim of company about ineffectiveness of agreement of loan with
a former proprietor Maksi-grupp
Raspadskaya: report after 2008 on MSFO
April, 11
Policy: completion 4-daily the VII all-russian power forum of "TEK of Russia in XXI age"
Gas industry: began the road show placing of eurobonds
Part of market participants is linked turn of domestic indexes with the statement of head of TSB about the possible decline of rates of refunding before long.
87% Bullish and 13% Bearish
http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=rsx
Investor sentiment on RSX from ITInvest
70% RTS long – IT Invest forum gurus.. (52 vs 22).
Sector RSX
Industrial Materials
22.04
Energy
37.95
Utilities
11.37
Telecommunication
13.05
Financial Services
9.14
Company Symbol % Assets
Gazprom Neft ADR N/A 5.27
Gazprom OAO (EDR) N/A 8.15
Lukoil Company ADR N/A 9.5
MOBILE TELSYS OJSC MBT
3.98
NK Rosneft' OAO N/A 8.09
Oao Novatek GDR N/A 4.67
Rostelecom ADR N/A 4.25
Sberbank Rossii OAO N/A 5.91
Surgutneftegas OAO (ADR) N/A 7.36
VIMPEL COMMUN VIP
3.89
In the World Bank’s report on Russia, it is estimated that Russia will have a 4.5% contraction for 2009, a drastic change from its previously projected 3% growth back in November. The financial crisis could ultimately create 5.8 million impoverished Russians. The Russian government is forecasting a 2.2% contraction in GDP for the year.
It is thought that unemployment could reach 12% and poverty rates will be at 15.5%.
The World Bank lauded Russia’s anti-crisis program with $85 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP, put into its banking sector, which was able to head off a financial panic.
As follows from materials to meeting of government, Minenergo of Russian FEDERATION suggests to correct investprogrammy coming from the specified prognosis of electro-consumption in a country. A new prognosis is foreseen by the decline of consumption in 2009 on 4,5% with the subsequent getting up in 2010 – on 0,1%, in 2011 – on 1,5%, in 2012 – on 3%. We will remind that the primary variant of investprogramm, made by RAO of «EES of Russia», came from stable growth of consumption of electric power at the level of 4-5% in a year.
In brief:
Economy – inflation from March, 31 for April, 6 was 0,2 %, from the beginning of month – also 0,2 %. For period from the beginning of 2009 inflation attained 5,6 %
Gazprom – the rating agency of Fitch appropriated the eurobonds of gazprom on 400 million swiss francs the expected rating of «BBB»
Bank sector – according to first vice-chairman TSB And. Ulyukaeva, TSB can reduce the rate of refunding «within the limits of month»
Energy – Government of Russian FEDERATION on Thursday will consider a question about the projects of investprogramm of subjects of electroenergy on 2009 and on the planned period 2010 and 2011 years. Now the departments of types discuss adjustment of of a particular branch general chart on a period to 2020 year. Also a government will consider the specified program of anti crises measures on 2009 and will discuss motion of implementation of measures, directed on making healthy of situation in a financial sector and separate industries of economy
Gazprom – the volume of output of eurobonds of company is megascopic from 400 to 500 million swiss francs
Tatneft' is a booty after 1 apt. 2009 went down on 2,3 % to 6,3 million т. of oil. These information fully reflect a situation with the booty of company on the whole. On results 2008, record at oil prices, a company succeeded to save the level of booty at the level of former year (25,8 million т.). In 2009 in the conditions of low oil prices and sharp reduction of demand on power mediums the booty of Tatneft, by our estimations, at the best will attain 25 million т., that supposes its falling on 3 % to the level 2008
YUTK – a net income on RSBU in 2008 made 557 million RUB (against a 1,827 milliard of RUB in 2007, decline in 3,2 of time). Growth of help on 5,6 % to 20,884 milliard of RUB, charges – on 10,4 %, to 15,754 milliard of RUB
YUTK – the board of directors intends to recommend shareholders on annual collection in June to confirm dividends after 2008 in size of a 0,02822 RUB on usual and 0,0573 RUBS on a preference share. On results 2007 YUTK paid 0,0821 RUBS and 0,1879 RUBS accordingly
Key events
10 april
Policy: continuation 4-daily the VII all-russian power forum of "TEK of Russia in XXI age"
Rosneft': «closing» of register of Udmurtnefti before meeting of shareholders' of May, 26
Gas industry is oil: consideration FRONT of matter of company about prices on nefteprodukty
ТНК-SR: consideration FRONT of matter of company about prices on nefteprodukty
MTS: consideration business FRONT in regard to a company
NLMK: examination of claim of company about ineffectiveness of agreement of loan with
a former proprietor Maksi-grupp
Raspadskaya: report after 2008 on MSFO
April, 11
Policy: completion 4-daily the VII all-russian power forum of "TEK of Russia in XXI age"
Gas industry: began the road show placing of eurobonds
Part of market participants is linked turn of domestic indexes with the statement of head of TSB about the possible decline of rates of refunding before long.
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