Отчетность по банкам - STI, KEY

Завтра перед рынком в свет выйдет отчетность двух банков из нашего портфеля.
STI - SUNTRUST BANKS
KEY - KEYCORP
Привожу графики компаний


Посреди торгового дня имеем падение обоих.
STI теряет около 8,5%, KEY - 7,5%.
Несмотря на хорошую отчетность банков, в частности GS, JPM, C - мы не можем ожидать столь же хорошей прибыли от STI, KEY. GS, JPM - заработали деньги в основном на инвестиционном банкинге, на трейдинге. STI, KEY - имеют же более классическую бизнес модель. У них отсутствует инвестиционное подразделение. Все ихние продукты направлены на кредитование разного рода. По "не инвестиционной" части отчетности JPM, мы видели явно плохие результаты. Логично экстраполировать эту часть бизнеса JPM на STI, KEY, так как она построена на аналогичных продуктах. Мы ожидаем плохой отчетности, но в тоже время смотрим что последнее падение котировок STI, KEY подразумевает очень плохую отчетность. Столько резкое падение перед выходом earnings, может привести к резкой фиксации шортов, после выхода. Поэтому мы рассматриваем вариант закрытие коротких позиций по STI, KEY в конце торгового дня.

Adds to Monday's stock list

STEC - earnings after the market . Key level 10$.
CTRP - earnings after the market. Key level 33$. But this level is not clear , hard to trade.
ENER, SLW, WCG, DISH
- earnings before the market. No interesting pattern yet, but it can appear during trading day.
GRA - look to this 1h grew. This company was found not guilty to the poison crime. 12.20 breakout - short.
VNUS - this stock was heavigly bought on friday. Was added to Business Daily-100.
CATY - beautifull trendive stock. Buy after the high breakout.
LDSH - grew without news. Short this after sidemove.
PCR - on the highs made by earnings realesing. Will look to Monday's open price.
GHM - if i could i'll shorted it now :-) . Key lvl 14.5$ was broke. Look to MOnday's open price.
ESC - grew with no news. Look to this potentional short.
MGRC - trade range breakout after earnings realased. Better if it will breakout 23.5$ level to short.
BOOM - real boom!!! :-) look to this clear friday's trend! Maybe it will continue? :-)
IRF - earnings range. 13-14$. Trade breakout.
ASR - aeroport reported about passenger traffic down 2.1%. Is it big drop to move stock from 36$ to 31.5$?

Trading Idea with AXP

American Express (NYSE: AXP - option chain) shares are soaring higher today after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $361 million or 31 cents per share. AXP's adjusted profit came in at 32 cents per share, beating analysts' forecasts of 12 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AXP.

AXP opened this morning at $22.69. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.05 and a high of $24.10. As of 11:25, AXP is trading at $23.74, up $2.77 (13.2%). The chart for AXP looks bearish and S&P gives AXP a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $17 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just two months as long as AXP is above $14 at June expiration. American Express would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money.

AXP has shown support around $18 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AXP.