Monday. Portfolio

Coefficient which we will calculate for our portfolio
Alpha. To see how effectively we running fund.
Beta. To see fund volatility.
Long's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including long's beta). Do we really bought strong stocks?
Short's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including short's beta). Do we really sold weak stocks?
Drawing a chart of fund valuation every day.
Other coefficient that figured in portfolio theory is not usefull for us know. 1st because we havent history of our fund. 2nd - its developed for more long term investing.

First positions in our portfolio

Today we bought
BCS@18.25
ABX@37.20
HMY@11.8
NEM@48.00
BCS - one of our banks stock which was on the buy list. We use opportunity which market gave us today. BSC fell on 14% today. One of Abu Dhabi investors from royal family went out from this stock on what he entered on October 2008 and made 54%. He explained it that they want to have free money for energy investing.
Three other positions ABX, HMY, NEM are gold stocks. We plan to make good bet on gold, silver, commodities companies as i wrote below.

Industry analysis. Gold/Silver. Show me guy who want sell gold

Gold Analysts Not Expecting Inflation This Year. They expect avarage price 918$. In generaly i am agree with them. But markets are driven not by facts but by expectations. They dont see inflation in 2010 now, but if market will grow up more we could expect increase infaltion even in 2010.
Nevertheless, the funds continue to pile into metal. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York gold futures last week, by 7.7% over the previous week, according to CFTC data.
Hedge fund manager John Paulson recently bought tons of gold and gold miners.
There is the gold/silver price ratio. For most of history, this ratio has averaged roughly 15:1. However, currently, this price ratio has swung to an extreme ratio of nearly 70:1. This alone should make silver an automatic first choice among investors.
Here we see from what places we demand on silver.
Ratio between gold and silver can be reduced as silver is not only precious metal but also its using for industrial needs. Two nonprecious metals reasons for Silver's upside: It is an Industrial metal which means greater usage in the years to come and its supply has been disrupted since it is a byproduct of the mining of other Base metals whose prices have to go up before they reopen.
My conslusion
We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly. For our fund we wanna to acumulate positions in gold, silver, stocks which are producers of commodities. The focus of our fund will be on silver.

Idea on gold

I see that many hedge fund managers are long now on gold or gold trusts , etc. I think its not just hedging in classical term. We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly.

All in one. 19.04.2009

Financial
If banks are up, why assets prices down?
Inner Workings
After reading the financial statements for many banks I can tell you that the only thing keeping them afloat is all these bailouts, legalizing of lying about asset values (aka mark to model), and non stop televised propaganda, none of which changes the fundamentals. This bear market rally isn’t going to shake most shorts because they are positioned to be solvent longer then the market can afford to be irrational, myself included.
Biggest Florida Bank - 20 days to find buyer - 14 billion BankUnited of Coral Gables
Technical picture for
JPM
GS
C
BAC
Overbought of financial sector (using MA50)
50MA and financial sector

Potentional arbitrage with OIL
picture for research
So sell OIL, buy stocks of OIL companies.
Cooper and other metals, oil
China buying activly cooper and all other industrial metals, oil - diminishing the dependence on the American bonds and dollar. But how much China can do supplies for production needs?
Also have potentional H&S for tasty short on cooper
chart of cooper

FEED
The main idea from Tim Sykes is shorting FEED
See the interview Tim Sykes on FEED

Number of US stocks above 50MA signals about overbought in short term period
bespoke

We can check this guy, whos main instrument is VIX VIX guy and see that it is also signals to short a market

RSX
We can comapre emergeny markets with US markets. We saw a powerfull down move on friday's close in US. Brasilian stock index Bovespa closed in -0,5% . LKOH, GAZP - russian blue chips closed the week in minus zone.



Real Estate
RealtyTrac agency declared the amounts of the withdrawn habitation about growth. In the first quarter a number was a record. The new coil of price-cutting can follow on the real estate.

We have a record unpleymonet numbers on California, Oregon, Carolina, Nevada, Indiana. So it can be a good idea to bet versus real estate in this states.