Thursday, June 11, 2009
Professional info systems. WOW! What they can give us!?
Below you can see screenshots with transactions in professional info systems
No words. Just look to the pictures.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Monday. Portfolio
Coefficient which we will calculate for our portfolio
Alpha. To see how effectively we running fund.
Beta. To see fund volatility.
Long's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including long's beta). Do we really bought strong stocks?
Short's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including short's beta). Do we really sold weak stocks?
Drawing a chart of fund valuation every day.
Other coefficient that figured in portfolio theory is not usefull for us know. 1st because we havent history of our fund. 2nd - its developed for more long term investing.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Portfolio. Weekend overview.
Portfolio structure by sector
Total invested money - 480852$
Long - 287164$
Technology - 136104$
Financials - 54480$
Gold - 97030$
Short - 193238
Short - 193238$
Services - Trucking - 83480$
Electronics wholesale - 6920$
Media - 16980$
Overall services - 107380$
Industrial goods - General building materials - 46850$
Textile industrial - 19345$
General contractors- 20293$
Overall industrial goods - 86488$
Biggest drodown we have in "gold" part of our portfolio. Its not strange, we had big gold drop on friday. Nothing change fundamentaly. Our look to gold the same as before. So we will not change gold stakes in short\middle time.
Another drodown - SPWRA - SunPower Corporation. Solar-energy companies's sector known for its volatility and speculative interests. Usually this sectors going up when oil prices increasing. Before companies from this sector reported about better earnings then expected. We dont expect strenght of this sector until we will see stong trend up in economy and large increasing of oil prices. We expect slow growth\range of oil prices.
VMED - we should be more carrefull next time about shorting of Richard Branson company :-). Richard - adherent of theory of chaos have motto - "To the devil all, undertake and do" :-) . Not far ago he bought Hefner's Playboy. On 3rd of June Virgin Media closed 1$ billion bond offering. We are carrefull about it, but dont see power for growth on it now.
BCS - we are in 2.59% plus on it know. We wont to see institutional support on it.
VOXX - we are now pretty right of VOXX shorting. Nothing special now. Just looking for 5$ price now.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Portfolio. New stakes.
New stakes
Long. Technology
IBM
SOHU
MSFT
IBM
MSN rank 8
large non-US revenue base
IBM's Q109 results indicate its strong position in emerging markets, which should continue to help drive growth.
Company has focused on driving its bottom line through cost cutting efforts. It re-affirmed EPS guidance for the full year of 2009 and 2010. Although, revenue is not expected to grow by much, expecting margin improvements in 2009.
MSFT
MSN rank 8
Big hedge fund support
Nice classical coefficients
SOHU
MSN rank 9
Sohu - is the second-largest Internet portal and one of the most well-known online brands in China. Sohu's pipeline for its new online games remains strong and is expected to drive meaningful growth in late 2009 and 2010.
The company spun-off part of its gaming division Changyou.com via an ADS offering, which is expected to increase its user base and help gain shares in the MMORPG (massively multi-player online role-playing game) market. We are also encouraged by the company's growing cash balance as well as its debt-free balance sheet.
We believe that the current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value. Concerns related to online ad spending, as consumers remain cautious in their spending.
Shorts
Industrial Goods
MHK - textile
SPWRA - general conducator
VOXX - Electronics Wholesale
TECUA - General Building Materials
Also we shorted aditional 700 shared on DW for portfolio long/short balancing.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Portfolio overview
My thanks to SeekingAlpha . Its wonderfull resource!
For today we have fully balanced portfolio on Beta coefficient.
BCS - 3000 shares
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
4,9 14,63 9,6 0,63 28,97
Can Slim Rating - 82
Key Abu Dhabi investor on Barclays sold his stake yesterday. Analysts began to speak that this is a time for profit taking on financials. We have a risk that we will see self powered down trend on financials on this catalyst. But also we can suppose thats nothing fundamentaly change on this and BCS is still attractive for investors and they could use this possibility to long BCS.
Paulson & Co hedge fund have short stake on Barclays @16.86
BCS havent now institutional support.
If BCS will not find large investor in short time - we will close this position.
Below our gold stakes. About our look on precious metals i wrote before.
NEM
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
34,17 7,85 0,82 2,73 11,66
Can Slim Rating 74
MSN Rank 9
ABX
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
52,31 4,11 1,1 2,14 20,31
Can Slim Rating 73
MSN Rank 6
HMY
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
15,12 6,29 0 1,4 32,35
Can Slim Rating 93
MSN Rank 9
Shorts
Our trucking picks
Trucking shipment data is often a gauge of overall economic health, because truckers haul more than two-thirds of all U.S. manufactured and retail goods.
The American Trucking Association's advance seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index fell 2.2 percent in April, after plunging 4.5 percent in March.
Compared with April 2008, tonnage shrank 13.2 percent, marking the worst year-over-year decrease of the current cycle and the largest drop in thirteen years.
We can expect trucking growth when we will see recovering in real sectors of economy. This is sector which have delay from overall economy. We are looking to USA indicators of buissness cycle. Here we can see that down trend is over. So lets keep eyes on it closely.
CNW
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-15,53 1,3 3,34 -15,82
Can Slim Rating 61
MSN Rank 4
ABFS
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
282,75 0,4 2,2 1,15 -5,34
Can Slim Rating 45
MSN Rank 6
FWRD
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
20,34 14,88 1,4 2,81 -3,21
Can Slim Rating 20
MSN Rank 4
Media
VMED
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-41,57 2,2 0,86 -16,46
Can Slim Rating 59
MSN Rank 3
Industrial goods - Building Materials
DW
USG
Our portfolio wasnt hedged yesterday and overnight. All short positions was opened today in the morning
For today we have fully balanced portfolio on Beta coefficient.
BCS - 3000 shares
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
4,9 14,63 9,6 0,63 28,97
Can Slim Rating - 82
Key Abu Dhabi investor on Barclays sold his stake yesterday. Analysts began to speak that this is a time for profit taking on financials. We have a risk that we will see self powered down trend on financials on this catalyst. But also we can suppose thats nothing fundamentaly change on this and BCS is still attractive for investors and they could use this possibility to long BCS.
Paulson & Co hedge fund have short stake on Barclays @16.86
BCS havent now institutional support.
If BCS will not find large investor in short time - we will close this position.
Below our gold stakes. About our look on precious metals i wrote before.
NEM
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
34,17 7,85 0,82 2,73 11,66
Can Slim Rating 74
MSN Rank 9
ABX
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
52,31 4,11 1,1 2,14 20,31
Can Slim Rating 73
MSN Rank 6
HMY
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
15,12 6,29 0 1,4 32,35
Can Slim Rating 93
MSN Rank 9
Shorts
Our trucking picks
Trucking shipment data is often a gauge of overall economic health, because truckers haul more than two-thirds of all U.S. manufactured and retail goods.
The American Trucking Association's advance seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index fell 2.2 percent in April, after plunging 4.5 percent in March.
Compared with April 2008, tonnage shrank 13.2 percent, marking the worst year-over-year decrease of the current cycle and the largest drop in thirteen years.
We can expect trucking growth when we will see recovering in real sectors of economy. This is sector which have delay from overall economy. We are looking to USA indicators of buissness cycle. Here we can see that down trend is over. So lets keep eyes on it closely.
CNW
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-15,53 1,3 3,34 -15,82
Can Slim Rating 61
MSN Rank 4
ABFS
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
282,75 0,4 2,2 1,15 -5,34
Can Slim Rating 45
MSN Rank 6
FWRD
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
20,34 14,88 1,4 2,81 -3,21
Can Slim Rating 20
MSN Rank 4
Media
VMED
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-41,57 2,2 0,86 -16,46
Can Slim Rating 59
MSN Rank 3
Industrial goods - Building Materials
DW
USG
Our portfolio wasnt hedged yesterday and overnight. All short positions was opened today in the morning
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
First positions in our portfolio
Today we bought
BCS@18.25
ABX@37.20
HMY@11.8
NEM@48.00
BCS - one of our banks stock which was on the buy list. We use opportunity which market gave us today. BSC fell on 14% today. One of Abu Dhabi investors from royal family went out from this stock on what he entered on October 2008 and made 54%. He explained it that they want to have free money for energy investing.
Three other positions ABX, HMY, NEM are gold stocks. We plan to make good bet on gold, silver, commodities companies as i wrote below.
Industry analysis. Gold/Silver. Show me guy who want sell gold
Gold Analysts Not Expecting Inflation This Year. They expect avarage price 918$. In generaly i am agree with them. But markets are driven not by facts but by expectations. They dont see inflation in 2010 now, but if market will grow up more we could expect increase infaltion even in 2010.
Nevertheless, the funds continue to pile into metal. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York gold futures last week, by 7.7% over the previous week, according to CFTC data.
Hedge fund manager John Paulson recently bought tons of gold and gold miners.
There is the gold/silver price ratio. For most of history, this ratio has averaged roughly 15:1. However, currently, this price ratio has swung to an extreme ratio of nearly 70:1. This alone should make silver an automatic first choice among investors.
Here we see from what places we demand on silver.
Ratio between gold and silver can be reduced as silver is not only precious metal but also its using for industrial needs. Two nonprecious metals reasons for Silver's upside: It is an Industrial metal which means greater usage in the years to come and its supply has been disrupted since it is a byproduct of the mining of other Base metals whose prices have to go up before they reopen.
My conslusion
We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly. For our fund we wanna to acumulate positions in gold, silver, stocks which are producers of commodities. The focus of our fund will be on silver.
Nevertheless, the funds continue to pile into metal. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York gold futures last week, by 7.7% over the previous week, according to CFTC data.
Hedge fund manager John Paulson recently bought tons of gold and gold miners.
There is the gold/silver price ratio. For most of history, this ratio has averaged roughly 15:1. However, currently, this price ratio has swung to an extreme ratio of nearly 70:1. This alone should make silver an automatic first choice among investors.
Here we see from what places we demand on silver.
Ratio between gold and silver can be reduced as silver is not only precious metal but also its using for industrial needs. Two nonprecious metals reasons for Silver's upside: It is an Industrial metal which means greater usage in the years to come and its supply has been disrupted since it is a byproduct of the mining of other Base metals whose prices have to go up before they reopen.
My conslusion
We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly. For our fund we wanna to acumulate positions in gold, silver, stocks which are producers of commodities. The focus of our fund will be on silver.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Industry analyses. Technology
All the trends in technology are still down. It is known that the numbers in the Durable Goods report do bounce around from month to month so it would be foolish to ignore these trends. Lets focus especially closely on the last few months. Here is where things get interesting. Tech indicators saying that low points were hit three to six months ago. The data for Shipments and New Orders have since then have shown a struggle to establish a bottom. We now see a few months of what could be characterized as erratic performance but definitely no new lows.
It is safe to say the tech sector is on the mend. Tech stocks have performed strongly over the last few months in anticipation of a recovery. The data do not yet show a V-shaped recovery but they do seem to show some kind of recovery in its early stages.
XLK is approaching its recent high, it is solidly above its 200-day moving average and its 50-day MA has just crossed above its 200-day MA.
I find interesting that most of technology companies not allocated much cash to equities. With so much cash and minimal or no debt on their balance sheets, these companies have the means to continue investing in internal growth initiatives and acquisitions.
Relative Valuation Chart -This graph shows the Percent to Target Current (Valuation Attractiveness) for a universe relative to the overall market. Values greater than 1 indicate the universe is more undervalued than the market, while values less than 1 indicate the opposite. The red line identifies the historical median value to provide a basis to understand valuation levels relative to historic norms. This example illustrates that the median Technology company is undervalued relative to the market currently and has been trading at a discount to its historic relative valuation, indicating a potentially attractive opportunity.
Technology Firms Continue to Downsize. There could be a number of reasons for the job cuts but it all boils down to “cost reduction”. Recession is always time to look to buisness and reorganize it more efficient. So we can expect that technology companies will become even more healthy.
Conclusion
Technology one of the most attractive industries in US economy now. Most of them have very strong balance sheets and only waiting for some economic growth. Classical coefficient saying that they are much undervalued.
It is safe to say the tech sector is on the mend. Tech stocks have performed strongly over the last few months in anticipation of a recovery. The data do not yet show a V-shaped recovery but they do seem to show some kind of recovery in its early stages.
XLK is approaching its recent high, it is solidly above its 200-day moving average and its 50-day MA has just crossed above its 200-day MA.
I find interesting that most of technology companies not allocated much cash to equities. With so much cash and minimal or no debt on their balance sheets, these companies have the means to continue investing in internal growth initiatives and acquisitions.
Relative Valuation Chart -This graph shows the Percent to Target Current (Valuation Attractiveness) for a universe relative to the overall market. Values greater than 1 indicate the universe is more undervalued than the market, while values less than 1 indicate the opposite. The red line identifies the historical median value to provide a basis to understand valuation levels relative to historic norms. This example illustrates that the median Technology company is undervalued relative to the market currently and has been trading at a discount to its historic relative valuation, indicating a potentially attractive opportunity.
Technology Firms Continue to Downsize. There could be a number of reasons for the job cuts but it all boils down to “cost reduction”. Recession is always time to look to buisness and reorganize it more efficient. So we can expect that technology companies will become even more healthy.
Conclusion
Technology one of the most attractive industries in US economy now. Most of them have very strong balance sheets and only waiting for some economic growth. Classical coefficient saying that they are much undervalued.
Idea on gold
I see that many hedge fund managers are long now on gold or gold trusts , etc. I think its not just hedging in classical term. We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly.
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