Sunday, May 31, 2009

Industry analysis. Financials.

Really it is hard to imagine any banks are in trouble with everything the US taxpayer has given up for them....
It is widely agreed that the banks are undercapitalized.
Further confirmation that the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets comes from Goldman Sachs’ Financial Stress Index (FSI). This index includes four factors related to the degree of impairment of financial markets: counterparty risk (US dollar 3-month LIBOR-OIS), liquidity risk (MBS to treasury repo differentials), refunding risk (commercial paper outstanding) and broader risk aversion (percentage of monies held in money-market mutual funds in relation to equity market capitalization).

FDIC's Fund Reserve Ration Plunges to 0.27% of Deposits. Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, released the latest information on “problem” banks on Wednesday. The list now includes 305 institutions, up from 252 at the end of 2008. We have had 36 bank failures this year and if no more than a quarter of the “problem” institutions fail, we will be over 110 bank failures for the year. But i think thats a delay indicator. Bank closures are not a leading indicator of economic health and can continue for some time even after the economy begins to recover. A lot from deposits will be invested. We havent much risk on it now. President Barack Obama on Wednesday afternoon signed into law two major housing bills, one of which would allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to temporarily borrow as much as $500 billion from the Treasury Department to protect the deposits of bank customers.
On the financials - we can use GS as an indicator of health. Goldman Sachs (GS) is one of the few companies with increased profit estimates in the marketplace today. Over the past 90 days their current quarter profit estimates have increased from $1.92 a share to $2.44 a share, a 27% increase. Likewise the next quarter estimates and the year profit estimates have also moved higher with the analysts that cover the stock.
Some banks announced that they will be able to begin to repay the government.
We see that bank's CDS become to cost less.
Goverment are all in financials, they will not give one more time possibility to drop.
The Fed, in a report issued Thursday, said commercial banks averaged $38.153 billion in daily borrowing over the week that ended Wednesday. That was down slightly from $38.155 billion in the week ending May 20. Investment firms didn't draw any loans over the past week from the Fed program. In the prior week the firms also took a pass on the emergency loans, something that hadn't happened since early September. Firms drew just $482 million in the week that ended May 13. Good trend.
Conclusion If nothing will be changed - we will see big growth in financials. It will not be exponential, just strong selfpowered trend. We have risks, but more we growing in financials - less risks we have. More financials shares getting up - more confidence crodw will have on it. More confidence crowd will have - less wholes in balance sheets we will see. Governments main target - to keep crowd confidence about finacials growing. So we will see a proccess which very nice described by Soros theory of reflexivity. Banks are good look by classic fundamentals, exept wholes in their balance sheets. But i write above how rather quick this wholes can disappear. The contrarian opinion analyses saying that financials are interesting for long. The most people just saying about stability growth in financials but still dont make big bets on it. So, nice potentional for growth, maybe only speculative now, but speculative growth can be a reason for a next fundamental growth.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Friday, May 29, 2009

Portfolio strategy

Our target is to build portfolio which will give good returns independent from market conditions. In portfolio we have strenght stocks in long and weak stocks in short side that are balanced (equal). Our ideal target to get this situation. Let’s suppose that we have ideal balance in long and short side of portfolio and market is in zero point. If market changing up on 1 basis point, long side ads 2 basis point and short side ads 1 basis point. So on market move on 1 basis point our overall result is 2-1=1. Next market making move down on 1basis poing. Long side minus 1, short side minus 2. So overall 1-1+2=2. Now we are in profit of 2 basis points. So in every next market’s step in 1 basis point our portfolio growing on 1 basis point.
For balancing long and short side of portfolio we are using Beta coefficient. If we have different Beta we entering a position with more or less quantity for making position equal.
At first we are looking which sectors are the most interesting for long/short. This analyses we do with calculating next data Market cap, P/E, ROE%, DIV Yield%, Price to book value, Net profit margin%, price to free cash flow. We pick most interesting on this and then doing discretionary analyses. We researching expections on this sector, catalysts, risks, events, etc. Then we took stocks from the interesting sectors and doing the same analyses on companies. So we have to be sure that we are picked the strength stocks from strenght sectors and the weakest stocks from the weakest sector. Also we are using technical analyses for sectors charts and stocks to identify important levels. We dont entering in market on all portfolio in one time. We trieng to enter in right time on every stock. So we have some risks, because we have a time when our portfolio is not hedged in all.
Also for picks we are using two ratings.
1st – Stocks Chekup on . Its site of CAN SLIM system developer – Williahm O’Neil. He developed this system many years agos, its very popular, but this system representing not changing financial principles and CAN SLIM will work for many many years more. CAN SLIM system developed for picking stocks with amasing potentional of growth. So we use it for an evaluation of growth potentional. Below we can see basic principles of CAN SLIM:
C & A
Sizing up a stocks earnings growth.
The biggest stock winners had new products, new management or new conditions.
New price highs offer new opportunities.
One of the most basic economic principles is the law of supply and demand.
Steer clear of stocks that are laggards.
When it comes to investing, it pays to watch the pros.
This section will help you learn to size up the health and direction of the stock market.

2nd – MSN Rank.
It includes fundamental, ownership, valuation, technical analyses. We use it to see strenght or weak stock are. For buy the best picks are with rank between 6 and 9. Its show that company have potentional for improve. Very good if it is confirmed with our rating of potentional growth – CAN SLIM. The same, only reversal, for our short positions.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Some writes about our portfolio creating

We developed strategy for our speculative portfolio. We have some modifications of it. so i think we will have at least 2 portfolios. One of them will be more wide. Maybe i will write about strategy in some time. So know i want to show you small potentional part of our portfolio.
Our potentional part of speculative portfolio short part.
This all picks are from Services sector. This short side of portfolio will be added by stocks from industrial goods sector.
Maybe you should value this picks and write me if you will do it. Just interesting.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Pennystocks to look

Pennystocks to look are here

Tuesday's preperation

I think time came, for what I wrote in the middle of March. Crowd follows after the promises of government. But now Fed changed its view to an economic and decline their forecast for this year. They expect lower GDP, higher unemployment. The same did Russian goverment. They expect big whole in a budget for 9%. This rally also was supported by a good earning from US companies, analytics upgradets, but its over already. Big possibility that we will see GM bankrupcy soon, banks will not be able to increase their results. On the technical view all is simple. Now we see double top on the major indexs and i expect that major support region 880 @SPX will be broken today. Now we have very interesting situation with North Korea. In which measureas the conflict of world public with them serious? Maybe they just joking with their misseles? :-) . Maybe we have possibility to by Korean stocks and this all is just a panic? Big hegde fund i think must have nice geopolitic for this situation :-) . Maybe we have arbitrage possibilities to short american soldiery companies and buy korean stocks?
17:00 - CB Consumer Confidence can give some impulse for market.
My stocks to look and trades look via twitter. Link to my page at left side of the blog.
Wish you luck today!

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Weekly philosophy

Life begins when you become indifferent to winnings and losses: you dont afraid loses, profits is not entered you in euphoria. When you will get tired from an avidity and fear, you will attain unity with the entire world. This is the moment of appearance of great traders and investors.
This this a quote from Van K. Tarp book "Trading - your way to financial freedom". This all sound reasonable and inspiring but i think for common man it is not avaible. We need to be prosacred. And the enlightened must fully correspond that, how a buddhism interprets enlightened.
Be with love!

Friday, May 22, 2009

Friday's preperation

As I am writing this words (14-55 Kyiv time) , S&P index climbed more than 1.5%. This growth explained by good accounting from Sears, rumors that GM can have another offers for their Opel and Vauxhall. Today we dont have more events, news , etc , that can be economic drivers. Only Ben Bernanke will have speech @21-00 Kyiv time. Will see hows US market will open. But now we can expect that trend could change only after 21-00. Todays market character could be range as on Monday we have US holiday . So traditionaly we see low volume on day like this.
First lets look for pennystocks
MRM - growth expleined by earnings. Its not the best pattern to play in pennystocks but lets just keep on mind this stock. Pennystock which reported good earning more often just keep its growth. We could by it on strong market plus if we have possibility to pot small stop loss on high breakout. Or on weak market we can look for sidemove to identify key level and short on its breakout.
NMTI - This stock grew, but had bad earning report + analyst upgrade. So no question that it is nice short. Look for 1.9 lvl breakout with good volume to short.
OGXI - we had news about drug of this pharmaceuticals company last week. Its nice short, but we still didnt see sidemove.
NGSX - this stock is some dangerous due its thin but fundamentally its nice pattern for sell. 4.5$ breakout.
Other stocks
Today we saw bad accounting from British Airways. We can expect that airways will weak today. CAL and DAL - maybe the weakest from this sector.
Another pennystock list to look pennystocks

Economic's waves

Its dispute speaks about economic waves as always. Noboby really confirmed that this waves tied to time. Below we can see structure of famous russian economist Kondratyev. Lets just think about it.

Thursday's review

Negative brought down on the market in last days. FED's economic forecast, GreatBritain could lost credit rating, Greenspan's appearance, negative economic data. I could expect that this will continue and finally we will see market correction. I expected that it will began lower, but now i am confidence about that. Market didnt touch 200MA, but removed from this area and formed something like double top. But this all is not so important. More important that negative news wave began on market. And today we heard a rumors that US can be downgraded on credit rating. But i think its possible only on US agree or for US benefit. On the open we saw weak market but with strong financials. XLF closed +0.17%. It wasnt too good at this situation, i saw this, but had trading financials. Shorted HIG, JPM, MS. All deals i closed with a plus but didnt think that this was rather good patterns so i am not want much to show it you. Its not on what we can learn something good. Its plus, but not quality plus. And at all we hadnt seen good risk/reward in today's market. It was time to be disciplined, not to lose money. Tommorrow will be new day with large better opportunities.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Thursday's preparation

As i am some busy with construction more long term portfolio, for today i brought next article from this blog . I cheked it . This guy prepared nicely. Today I will use his picks.

Analyses and picks on classic coefficient's

We began to build our speculative portfolio for more long period. We decide that 1st step will be analyses on classic coefficient's. At first we found most good sectors on classical fundamentals, then searched the best stocks from this sectors. Ofcoz, our portfolio will not be hold for so long time to make this this coef work, so this calculations were made just to cut our risks and make higher probability of portfolio success. This stocks are just potentionaly more stronger then market. So now we will make discretionary analyses of this picks.
After this analyses were chose 3 sectors



Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Tuesday's review

Looking for the gainers of premarket, i found an idea - to make basket from the top 5-10 gainers and short it due trading hours. :-) . Ofcoz , to do it , market have to weak or at least neutral. Maybe someone wanna to do statistical calculations to know is it work or no? Today again, stocks, which had positive background, gained on premarket, was trading in minus zone all day on mixed market. One of the exception - MS, which announced about money back to TARP. I traded nice on it. Here is screenshot.

And at once daily chart

I longed MS @29.04 when S&P was on way to the high board of the range. But we still had lunch time at US so havent enaough powerfull to brekout higher. Before the entering a position i saw that MS making my favorite pattern for daytrade - an ascending triangle. When lunch time ended, S&P was on the bottom of a range and began to growth. Then as we expected we saw a breakout on MS on large volume. S&P began to trade on high board of a range and MS grew higher and higher. I was not very happy to see this. Then S&P breakout key resistance, which pushed MS to 29.86 high. Next i saw this things. We made on MS small red candle with a big volume. This was good signal for potentional reverse. And as on every breakout i refreshed Dr. Bret tweeter and saw this "steenbab1:58 PM CT - Highs in ES not confirmed so far by IWM, XLF, XLV. We continue to see absence of signif selling in TICK.". So we could expect that this breakout was false. And really we saw this on market and traderfeed's twitter - "steenbab2:40 PM CT - Once again we see how the non-confirmed moves tend to reverse, continuing the range trade. Back l8r today.". I saw that MS made support @29.5 lvl, so changed stop loss order to 29.45. In really, when i expect false breakout i should close MS with a big profit. But i hoped, just hoped, that this non-confirmed breakout will push market higher. I put stop loss on MS in the way - if S&P will break support, only on this situation my stop loss will execute. Maybe this was not ideal from me, but even on this i am satisfied with this trade. I made another 41 pips of profit.
I had another small trade during a day, but it was not intersting. Just came a victim of false breakout @USB.
Also had new ideas on pennystocks. Wait for tommrrow udpates.
Also we made began to make speculative portfolio with active managment. I will also write some info on it.
Good night!

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Tuesday's preperation

Due to TraderFeed's statistical analyses we can expect trend down to day. article . Also Dr. Bret said that guys from quantifiableedges and markettells to the similar conclusion due their statistical analyses. As i wrote some below, yesterday we saw strong trend up on light volume. So we can suppose that instutionals investors wasnt on the market yesterday and this up move wasnt important for a market in more long perspective.
Its came more realistic when todays market drivers were publicated. "U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to Record-Low Pace; Permits Decline"
Tim Sykes saying: "No trades on Friday due to my moving apartments…lots of potential plays due to stock promoters being back in the game biiiigtime…" So we really can expect a lot of good patterns in pennystocks for short.
LBAS - potentional short. Look for sidemove. This stock was up clear on manipulations.
BCRX, LBAS - pennystocks for short, but no good technical patterns do it now.

Stocks which are today's drivers. Positive news background before the marekt:
Negative news background - MXB, IVZ
When market will open, try to evaluate in what measure news in the market and if they have possiblity to move this stocks more up

Tuesday's night minds

I wrote a Monday's review below and now want to write some minds too.
A TraderFeed's quote: "Several traders that I interacted with today were not able to participate on the long side despite the fact that the stock market was strong throughout the day. When they explained their selling bias, they said things like, "I just don't believe we should be trading up here" and "There's no way we are going higher"". During US trading hours, trend dont change often. Maybe even better to say wave. We have maximum 3 waves in trading day. Often we have just one wave - good trendive day. So, why we trieng always to catch a reverse? My expirience saying that i have better results when i just trading on the past direction.
Another problem of daytraders - they make trades too often. Its hard to make new deals every day , but more hadder to make it a lot due trading day. Its not to hard to do analyses, to click on keys "buy" or "sell" . Its hard to keep realized good and to perceive patterns correctly, as you can do it not in trading hours.

Monday's review

Lacking any economic catalysts to begin the week stocks started the day off gapping higher. Volume tracked lower for much of the day indicating institutional players were sitting on the sidelines staying away from the action. It appeared the action was driven by short-sellers covering their positions. It was certainly disappointing to see volume come in lower on such a large percentage move on the indexes. At this point, a day with gains is nice but at some point we need accumulation to support this uptrend.
For my surprie, Ford was one of the weakest stocks in today's market. It closed only with +0.18% gain and traded for a long time in minus day during a day. Hmmm.. If u can explain this, write in the comments please.
My other pick to look for today was COT. I suposed that this stocks is much stronger then market. And really, we saw +8.31% gain but we didnt see good patterns to enter.
HEB - its really my winner. Gained +48%. Still waiting announcement about their drug which is expected this week.
VNDA - was another big gainer but we didnt see trading it @10$ region, so we didnt enter long on it.
Today i made a mistake with MGM. News was focused today on this stock. I entered @8.5 range breakout (for long position) but this breakout was false and MGM traded in downside range with small angle. Only after lunch it began to go with market and closed for +13.95%. Sounds horriblle but i didnt estimate, when i was enetering a position, that news about JP morgan upgrade, Kerkorian purchase all in market already. Stock gained for that moment 10% already. Even strong market couldnt to push it higher for a long time.
Today world perceived very good the victory of N party on elections in India. If i now mistaken Indian Stock Index gained nearly 20%. We have intersting situatin in Indian bank which trading on NYSE - IBN . No question that this was very tasty short on 30$ breakout. But even on weak market this level hold good. I waited for 30$ breakout to enter short and after lunch of it entered it and we could close this position on 29.29 in last minutes of market. But why we didnt do this thing during trading day. Why we did not buy at 30$ and sell at 30.5 region? We could profit doing this many times today.

We would have no troubles today with this powerfull up trend if we would just to listen to this expirience man on twitter - TraderFeed or to his indicators. Even looking to a simple tick we could made nice daytrading profit. Tick always indicated uptrend today. And today's moving up was confirmed good with sectors, indexes.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Monday. Preparation

Today we have monday and lets make a great trading week!
We begin with pennystocks picks
- i wanted to short this stock with new drug on friday @11$ breakout. Technically it was very good, but i didnt understand fully a growth on new drug and also TimSykes , pennystock guru, here is his site was bullish on this stock. If we were short this stock, we could close with nearly 90 pips profit on 10$ region, but.. This stock was really stronger then market, it closed @11.15 and market , in general, were weak. So i think TimSykes were more right about this stock. As i understand we have a smooth process of promoting companies drug.. I am not sure really but i will try to enter long if we will have pullback to 10$ again.
COT - still stronger then market after earnings. Earnings changed from 0.28$ loss to 0.30$ profit. In general this is still strong stock. Lets just looking for it.
HEB is awaiting FDA approval on the drug Ampligen which is in orphan status. Investors seem to be buying in before the announcement which is expected in the next week.
Now market dont give us many good patterns in pennystocks.
F - Ford is looking strong after stock offering. This is potentional buy. Can find good entry point on monday. But more better i think to find weak stock with the same volatility to make hedge deal.
I am pretty satisfied how my hedge deal with shorting CSCO and buying MSFT are working. Now have profits in this deals.

Wait for updates!

Friday, May 15, 2009

What a day?! Using magican trading style

Wooh! It was great!
Today at the US morning I longed Ford, BAC(with loss) and the shorted BAC with profit. But this trades wasnt so good as my 3 trades on HIG.
HIG - receives approval for participation in TARP today. So, this stock opened in positive zone @16.83. At first wanted to buy HIG after it will fill gap from 16.83 to 14.72. But market was really weak today @Dr. Bret indicators and i searched patterns for short. HIG was trading in minus zone and formed very pretty downside base, which gave possibilty to enter with low risks.

Waited for a moment when market breakout multiday range and then shorted HIG@14.78 . Looking attentive how it is trading @openbook and looking to TraderFeed's indicators , saw the market have enaough power to go to 14$ on HIG. I put buy limit order @14.04. After profit taking i saw this - "steenbab2:20 PM CT- Still questioning downside here; ES 3-day lows not confirmed by NASDAQ or Russell; also not confirmed by XLF, XLB, XLK. Bk l8r." . So had a big grounds to suppose that this multiday range breakout was false. On HIG i saw reverse candle combination. I saw how price reverse near small candle with large volume. As supposed that market's range breakout was false and seeing this reverse pattern @HIG + saw that demand > supply on HIG via openbook so i entered long @14.20. I put limit order to sell @14.78. This was last strong resistance. Accompanied HIG with openbook and TraderFeed's indicators. After profit taking i saw real fight bid vs ask @14.8$ lvl. Also saw that market confused on indicators so decide to be avid and to take all :-) . I caught pullback for other 20 pips and closed on last minutes of market.

Stock list for Friday

In future i will try have time to write this picks with explenation like before.
TraderFeed's levels here his blog
steenbab6:55 AM CT - $SPY targets: Pivot=89.38; R1=90.59; R2=90.99; R3=91.40; S1=88.16; S2=87.76; S3=87.35. Trading below pivot. $$

Take trade ideas from this place. They are really good.

Potentional short
VNDA - 11$breakout
TEN - 5$ level
AGM - 6$ level
Potentional longs
ETC - above 2$ lvl (were miss key)
COT - 4.84$ high breakout.
FMAR - 1.5$ lvl if we will see monic panic.
CKEC - 8$ lvl
LAD - 5.25$ lvl
Potentional Longs
HIG - havent nice level for entering yet.
USB - 18$ level
BCS - 16.5$ level
BAC - 11.5$ area.
Potentional Shorts
TX - 14.5$ level
CCE - 16.8 level
BK - 27.5$ level

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Thursday's stock list (some adds already here)

I see that majority of my picks for short are trading in good down move for 1,2,3 even 4 days. Maybe it coz good falling market (but pennystocks dont much correlate with market overall), but anyway lets try not only daytrade but and holding more long term portfolio of my pennystocks short.
FITB - will not repeat again. This is old stock from last stock list's. We already know factors which moved this stock. Short 7$ breakout, target - 5,5$.
BAC - last 5 days this stock trading in nice smoth down trend. We can expect such style moving to 10$. Short 11$ breakout. Dont forget about market confirmation.
USB - our old friend :-) . This stock can show some strength in short term. It's CEO told that USB will be ready to move out from TARP program. Expect sidemove. Then can trade range breakout.
VNDA - be attentive for news on it. Especcialy about their new drug. Look for sidemove on it.
ETC - think stock. We can try to build 500-1500 shares position using limit orders. But wait for sidemove at first.
F - can expect filling range from 5 to 5.25 lvl on Ford. This autobuilder already attracted capital from own stock offering. F sold own stocks @4.75$. We could expect lower supply for short term period.

CLWR - look how it will be trading at 5$ lvl. POtentional short.
CCE - have to be stronger then market today.
CVLT - look on what price it will open. Potentional short on 10$ breakout.
SNE, WMT - will be weaker then market today.

Wednesday's review

Today made hedge trade with buying MSFT and selling CSCO. MSFT - 1st time in history decide to offer own bonds and money from selling boonds MSFT will be use to buy own stocks. CSCO - not far ago reported bad earnings and as all technology are weak now. I entered when saw good technical entry points. The hedge was good and now this 2 trades are in plus zone.
DISH, CIEN, FITB - still holding this shorts. Closed NCS.
Today i saw an interesting situation on BBT. All day BBT trading up on a weak down market. It just was filling gap from 20.2 to 20.2. At 22.15 Kiev Time we saw a big divergations between falling market and our psychological indicators. We were waiting for up reverse. On chart of BBT we see 22.6 level wich formed during trading day. I decide to long from this level and was waiting for pullback. Also i needed confirm from our indicators on overall market. I was looking attentively on openbook to see if we have real support @21.6. The support was real , stock was strongly supported on 21.5-21.6 region. I entered @21.65. In 2 5min candles i saw 21.84 price but even didnt think to close. OVerally market was really oversold and BBT moved large up after even some up ticks on s&p. But then market made some down move and BBT closed only at 21.5$. I decide to close on this price on last trading minutes.
HPQ - trading on reverse. All stocks with big capitalization i trading only with market confirmation. On HPQ we saw downmove with lower and lower angle. HPQ was strongly supported all below 34$ . We could saw it on openbook. It was easy to play reverse trade. If u would be enough quick , you could enter @34.1 with targe nearly 38.2% from down move - 34.4. On this wave we saw only 34.35 high but anyway u could close with easy 20-30 points of profit.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Wednesday's stock list

*now i am using as a screener, coz dont filter for me stocks that have large gains/drop not on the last day period.. bug or what? doesnt matter.. using investertech now
IRF - company which announces bad q1 earning at 7May after market close. Now trading in range 13-14$. 13 or 14$ breakout of range. Trade with market confirmation.
DISH, CIEN, FITB, NCS - holding shorts from tuesday.
MNKD - This company had earnings on 4th May after market. Big sidemove and bearish pattern on D chart. Short 6$ breakout.
USB, BBT, COF - some of the weakest in financials.
F - will look for good enter point. Target 4$.
VNDA - we dont know is their new drug is so cool as stock perfomance. Look for potentional short.
BKUNA - news about acquireing company. Wait for real deal and look for news on this company.
TEN - stock from old list. Still have potentional to move to 5$ . Look to 6$ lvl.
CNO - 2.9$ breakout short. Reason of last grew - earnings.. so.. not very good pattern.

Tuesday's review

DISH - We were interested in 17$ breakout. We saw nice braekout to 16.5$.
NCS - we broke strong range @6$. I entered the breakout and still holding short.
FITB - today, even on weak market at the morning we had false breakout @8$. I guess my estimation of growth was wrong. As I wrote "This stock had speculative growth after publicing stress test results". Yes, i still holding this short, even after false breakout but now i think this company is not weaker then financials overall.
BAC and AXP - was my financials to long. "Bank of America Corp. shares rose in premarket trading Tuesday on reports the bank has raised $7.3 billion by selling part of its stake in China Construction Bank to Asian investors." But on weak market open we broke lvls for which i looked as potentional buy. We didnt saw real s/p on it at weak market open. Its nice :-) .
COF - we were interested on breakout @26$. We saw beautifull move after breakout to 24. At 20-00 when market reverse COF removed from 24$. We began to find new entry point for short for 2-3 days. We saw how COF had problems to move higher at 24.6 area but wasnt enough disciplined to wait for a base/sidemove and to see market confirmation @TraderFeed indicators.
- shorted @9.94 and still hold it. This stock was weaker then market today coz analyst rating's downgrade.
F - Ford announced about offering own stocks. It opened with a large gap down and found some support @5.5. I saw this but wasnt enough quick to enter this. On time when i looked to how market weak are - F already broke 5.5$ lvl.
INTC - we expect weak technologies in near future. So every day we have some technology companies on list to short. Today INTC didnt broke 15$ in which we were interested but this stock is still on our list.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Tuesday's stock list

IRF - 13 or 14$ breakout of range. Trade with market confirmation.
DISH - short 17$ breakout.
MNKD - short 6$ breakout.
NCS - short 6$ breakout, market confirmation
FITB - short 8$ breakout.
AXL - short 3$ breakout. Small risk, small potentional.
TVL - short 3$ breakout.
BAC - long some above 13$.
AXP - long some above 26$
USB - short breakout 18$, market confirmation
COF - short 26$, market confirmation
BBT - weaker than market
APC - weaker than market
CIEN - weaker than market, short 10.5$, market confirmation
F - weaker then market, look to 5$ lvl
INTC - weak, look to 15$ lvl

Monday's report. What we will in a range.

Today's market character was horrible range after 20 min drop on the market open. Days like this are always hard to trade because a lot of patterns having false breakouts, low volatility, and a lot of stocks a just trading plus-minus some points...
Today's watch list was added by financial companies - BAC, AXP, WFC and USB, COF, BBT (last 3 announced about selling own stocks to refinance their debts).
As today market character was range we have small number of opportunities to enter from my big stock list. We had only some patterns to play in not very good stocks. They are thin (low average day volume)and have big spread..
1st trade was shorting GRA. This company was found not guilty to the poison crime. After this news announced we have 1h growth from 9.5 to 13. I preapered to short this after 12.2 breakout before the market and did it. I shorted @12.18 but in some ticks GRA was already traded @12.5. Thats why i dont like thin stocks. When somebody with even not small buying power want to move it in 10-30 points he have no problems with this. I put rather big stop loss as for daytrade @12.62 . Some ticks more and we already trading in 12$ region :-). I decide to close position using limit order. But anyway closed it only @12.08. We got resistance @12. I reentered on its breakout @11.97. At this moment market was making some down moves so this enter was ok. But from this moment market range become more and more stronger. I have to close position, seeing market conditions, on lows region 11.8 . But waiting for breakout and got stop loss @12.10 after long time position holding.

IRF - company which announces bad q1 earning at 7May after market close. Now trading in range 13-14$. This stock will be in Tuesday's stock list for short @13$ breakout.
AXP - due to negative market mood on financial companies, mostly all financials opened with a down gap. The same situation we saw in AXP. After opened with a down gap it have traded in a range as whole market. But at the afternoon it formed nice support @26.5. Market hadnt power to go down or up , so we can expect breakout AXP but with low target to go down more. So nice trade idea was to buy AXP some above 26$. The idea worked and we earned another 20 points.

Another good picks were COF and BBT. After news about "selling own stocks" announces this stocks was a small number of all which traded in nice trend.
So! Be happy and hope that tommorrow we will have better markte conditions to have more patterns for making profits!

Monday, May 11, 2009

Adds to Monday's stock list

STEC - earnings after the market . Key level 10$.
CTRP - earnings after the market. Key level 33$. But this level is not clear , hard to trade.
- earnings before the market. No interesting pattern yet, but it can appear during trading day.
GRA - look to this 1h grew. This company was found not guilty to the poison crime. 12.20 breakout - short.
VNUS - this stock was heavigly bought on friday. Was added to Business Daily-100.
CATY - beautifull trendive stock. Buy after the high breakout.
LDSH - grew without news. Short this after sidemove.
PCR - on the highs made by earnings realesing. Will look to Monday's open price.
GHM - if i could i'll shorted it now :-) . Key lvl 14.5$ was broke. Look to MOnday's open price.
ESC - grew with no news. Look to this potentional short.
MGRC - trade range breakout after earnings realased. Better if it will breakout 23.5$ level to short.
BOOM - real boom!!! :-) look to this clear friday's trend! Maybe it will continue? :-)
IRF - earnings range. 13-14$. Trade breakout.
ASR - aeroport reported about passenger traffic down 2.1%. Is it big drop to move stock from 36$ to 31.5$?

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Building stock list for Monday

Think about the future, but live in real time :-) Anyway lets work and prepare some good patterns for Monday! Here some pennystocks for Monday. List will be upgraded with stocks for other trading styles.
MNKD - already posted a chart. This company had earnings on 4th May after market. It already hit all possible highs :-) , so lets look for a short. Ofcoz, when it one more time will hit 6.94 high thinking buy is not be good for this stock. So looking for 6.27 level breakout to short.
We closed on NCS at 7.5 high made by earnings. Now this stock in a good range. Lower board of range is 6$ level.

This stock had speculative growth after publicing stress test results.
Look to 8$ breakout for short.


Growth on 5th May due to earnings. Short breakout @2.75. But profit potentional are not high. Will see.

Grew 170% after DeutcheBanks upgrade. Short @4$ breakout.

- grew after their medical preparat were approved. But do we have good potentional to go down?
Grew without news

Grew with now news. Breakout @5$ short


Last trade day earnings were realesed. Trading breakout of range.

Grew 250% after earning relalesed on 1st May. Look for breakout @3.9 . Daily chart for better seeing here.

List of a top pennystocks promoters

Here we have a list of a top pennystocks promoters

Global post

Found usefull sites about pennystocks

InterectiveBrokers should be the best broker for trading pennystocks as bloggers, newsletters write. There is a big list of pennystocks to borrow.

From Monday you can follow me on twitter, where i will write real time my trades and ideas -

Yesterday technology tradings
As last week technology was really weak by bad earnings from NASDAQ bigget companies, I looked to technology companies - AAPL, CSCO, HPQ. I saw nice level on AAPL @128 and decide to short it. Here you can see chart.

I had nearly 150 points of profit but didnt fix it. I saw a reverse at 126.20 region but didnt fix. I thought that AAPL will go again to 128 lvl and after that will move down again. But 128 lvl was broke. I must to fix in 126.5 region but didnt look to how market was strenght yesterday. Ofcoz, to trade big companies like AAPL need to compare real time market strength and AAPL price moving. If we looked to the S&P at that moment we should close this position with a nice profit. Its baby mistake. Should to build trading proccess more strictly to shut out this again.

Trading proccess

We have 2 trading styles running every day in one time.
1st - PennyStock trading
2nd - Trading stocks with intersting chart patterns

At 1st will describe PennyStock trading style
With finviz help we are screen stock with most % gain or loss. Better it works for gain, as pennystocks with big gain can be mostly good candidats for shorts but also we can find some good long daytrade opportunities.
If pennystock have big gain we research "why" this gain was made.
If the reason is really true and we didnt see very large move up before we can long this pennystock on breaking new high.
If the reason is false or we saw that this stock growth a lot with speculative money we looking for sidemove and short on the range breakout.

2nd trading style
For this trading style we are using 2 persons. We are looking as more charts as we can before the market to find interesting technical patterns (mostly its nice support and resistance). For this research we are using two timeframe charts. 5min and Daily (using for see what move potentionaly can make this stock - looking for daily level, patterns, etc).
Other resource of trading ideas is blogs. I still didnt find good resources were i can find nice trading ideas. Have only some like SMB trading desk and StockTwits.
One person looking for informative background for S&P during a day and looking to Dr. Bret indicators. So this person know all about current market conditions, levels, etc. 2nd person look through the stock list which was made before the market and waiting for good opportunities to enter. When 2nd trader see good opportunity to enter he asking 2nd trader about market conditions. The same on close position.
This what we do in briefe. Now i want to write it fully for ourself as logical structure.

Some situations from friday's pennystocks list

On this pictures in wrote only the main thesis. Also i look to fundamentals - "reasons of last move", "daily chart", "sector of this stock".

Account weekly review

Friday, May 8, 2009

Pennystock list for 8th May

Potentional shorts
VNDA - just look how this stock will be trade today.. if we will see activity potentional short on the low breakout @7.39
LEA - closed powerfull after earnings realesed. Waiting for sidemove.
SPPI - short on the breakout @3.4. Target 3-3.2$
GCA - waiting for activity.. if.. breakout @7.27. Target 6.5-7
MNKD - growth without events, news or etc. Will see how it will be traded @6.
ODP - looking for sideway bearish pattern
THQI - if breakout @4.5 short with target 4.2
ARM - look how it will be traded @3$.
TEN - 6.5 breakout, target 6$
ATRC - look to 3$ level. If nice breakout , target 2.5$.

Review of 7th May

Closed BAc with profit 1990$. after big gap up on the open (BAC was raised due to Tim Geitner words about stress test resulst, analyst upgrades) , market and bac traded on resistance, dont having power to breakout higher.BAC was traded at 15$ region and began to go down. Think many speculators began fixed position after big gain overnight. Closed @14.68. Stress test results will be present after market close. Market filling positive on it, so will try to reenter in bac @14-13.5$.

BAC reentered @14.55 . Bullshit. Was stopeed 13.94. 610$ lose

TRK - was on list to short. Shorted @19.59.

CSCO - opened @20$ after good earnings. But then breakout range @19. Entered @18.94

BAC reentered @13.8 . SL@13.62 . 180$ lose

Closed TRK @19.37 - 220$profit. Too long sideway. Price formed base.

Shorted ELN @ 6.98 . SL@7.07 Moved up from 6.6 to 7 on 10x increasing volume.

Stopped with ELN @ 7.07. 90$ loss

MDT shorted @13.74. Found this stock during the market. Saw that there is no events for it today. It grew from
32.25$ to 33.89$. Then we had a pretty nice sideway move with big angle downturn. Closed 33.59 . MDT 150$ profit

CSCO closed @18.70. CSCO 240$ profit

Closed CSCO and MDT because of their sidemove versus falling market.

Again had problems with borrowing stocks in thinkorswim. LOst 3 good deals oportunities.

BAC... lost a lot on it during tradeday .. Needed just to wait for filling gap.
13.04, sl12.89 loss 150$

Overall per day - profit 1580$.

HOlding BAC overnight. Entered price 13.23. Now profit on it 1600$

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Before the market open

My holding BAC overnight giving me today 2000$ after analyst upgrades and positive words of Tim Geitner about stress test results. Today will be realesed stress results, market are filling positive about it and financial sector growing a lot. Will see.. Will resulsts will be worse or the same as market thinking can be nice shorts oportunities on financial sector. So, today looking atentive to the crowd mood about XLF. Play against crowd and make money :-)

More picks on 7th May

You can see pennystocks list for short below and other picks are here
PZZA - after earnings report before the market open on wednesday, pzza opened with a gap and now we can see a range between 29.25 and support 28. So if market will go down and we will see breakout pzza @28 - short. Potentional - filling the gap. 26.5-27.
IGT - nice trendive stock which hold levels good. Now trading on strong resistance @16. Looking for breakout.
SPSS - gap up and sideway moving after earnings report. Short @ breakout 33.5 .
CTB - yesterday we saw increased volume on this stock and breakout @10 level and holding this level for all day. Idea is to buy nearly support @10. How as I know logic of instutional investors, this stock can be interesting for them now.
- holding long from yesterday.
TRK - yesterday we saw growth from 15 dollars to 20$. Sidemove yesterday afternoon. Looking for breakout @19.50$
VIGN - pattern like on PZZA. Looking for breakout @12$.

Pennystock list for 7th May

Potentional pennystock shorts for 7th May
APAC - leading provider of customer care service and solutions for market leaders in healthcare, business services, publishing, communications, etc. Strong earnings on Wednesday. Waiting for bearish technical pattern to short.
ARM - growth on strong earnings. Not very good pattern, but will see.
CTIC - today crowd was crazy about this stock. On StockTwits it was the most popular stock. A lot of speculative money are there. Closed at 1.27 after high @1.85. So not much potentional to go down.
DAN - to be honest, I dont know why this stock is growing up :-). Trading now at resistance region @1.95.
DTG - growth from 2 dollars to 5.45. Had earnings on 6th may. Waiting for bearish sidemove to short.
AHD - tuesday growth on earnings expectation, wednesday sidemove. Ready to short? Target - 2.5 region.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Trading report. 6th May

Todays market was driven by news that US Banks need less refinance from the government due to stress test results. Other market's driver was better then expected data on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So S&P gained 1.7%, but ofcoz we had some good oportunities to short.
1st trade was with BGFV. This stock was on my stock list with comment "bearish pattern after big gain after earnings realased". Shorted not far from the market open @11.61. 1st target was support at 11$. I saw how BGFV was traded at 11$ and waited for breakout to add 1k shares more. Short one more 1k shares @10.94. After this i moved my stops to 11.10 and 11.15. Breakout was false, so i was stopped, but still had a profit. Knew that this stock had potentional to go more lower and reentered @10.98. Stop @11.20. So after position add, and reenter I closed all trades with BGFV with profit 80$.
2nd trade - DOW - this chemical gigant annonced about stock selling to refinance their debts.. So market had some negative mood on this stock and technical pattern was ok to short. I shorted @15.61 . I didnt wait for the range breakout, but know that with big big % of success it will be breakout to go lower. I expect that dow will fill gap 13.5 - 15.5 more actively, but market was strong, so i closed nearly 15$ dollars support at price - 15.15. So other 460$ for profit.
TXT - this wasnt my pick. I saw it on some internet page. This stock still trading in nice range. I shorted @11.57 nearly high board range. But for a petty my internet connection was broked for nearly 1 hour and i didnt see how TXT was traded at support and then we had a reverse. A petty, but a lose for this trade - 210$
4th trade for today - BAC . Opened with price gain at 11.76 due positive in bank sector and traded in range between this level and 12.00. I bought at breakout of 12.05 and still hold this position with profit 500$.
Today I had a problems with borrowing stocks on ThinkOrSwim, so I lost some good trade opportunities like AHD, CTIC.
Found nice site - . Here we can see something like voice of crowd on individual stocks.
Day result - plus 820$

Trading Radar for 6th May


08:15 ADP Employment Change -643k
10:30 Crude Inventories




Stock list for 6 May

Potentional shorts
DAN (Consumer Goods - Auto Parts) - no reasons for growth from 0.9 to 1.43 .. Sidemove afternoon and evening.. Ready to short? Potentional down move to 1 dollar.
CAR - growth on earnings expectation which will be realased 7th May. Waiting for realase, then sidemove, then potentional short.
ABD - officce products, earning on 6th May at the morning.
ALD - moved up from 2$ to 4$ in 4 days.. Earnings will be realesed on next Monday. Can be shorted with low risk after breakout base in 4$ region.
ECPG - side move after good earnings realesed 29 of March
COT - sidemove after earning realased 1st of May
BGFV - bearish pattern after big gain after earnings realased.
ATRC - agiotage after earnings, 5th may

No stocks for long today for this strategy

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Overallotment: May 4

* There are 2040 hits for "optimism" on Bloomberg default search, 369 for "pessimism"
* 10 banks to fail stress test (WSJ)
* Obstacles emerge for Fiat purchase of Chrysler (FT)
* Roubini: We can't subsidize the banks forever (WSJ)
* BofA says no plan to raise capital, Citi mum (Reuters)
* 401(k)'s hit by withdrawal freezes (WSJ)
* TPG highlights buy-out woes (FT)
* More "leaks"- AIG to exclude more U.S. bailout cash (Bloomberg)
* Porsche and VOW to clash over rescue plan (FT) [hint: Porsche CDS]