Amendment on standart deviation

I am sorry for not correct numbers on standart deviation.
It were written here and here .
Our real standart deviation - 7%.
We will speak about it when we will post our full portfolio report.

Ready to share all information\strategies

Dear guys!
I am ready to share all information that i know, all thoughts that i have, all strategies that we use.. Do you know how many time hedge fund managers spent on speaking with colleagues? They speak a lot, coz they want to see real market picture, want to find new investing ideas. When you communicate with people, you thought becoming more clear, you find new ideas in you thoughts, you find some in thoughts of other people, so its great! Its hard to find good professionals on financials markets in Ukraine, but i am sure we have some number of strong professionals in Ukraine. Its greate if you write me from other countries. We can share expirience, speak about local markets... Maybe work together.. Dont forget that my native language is russian or ukranian. Add me to your skype.
My skype - dmytrenkoartem

Thoughts adding on standart deviation

Mistake here. Look to this
In last post i wrote that our portfolio standart deviation is 30% versus market 64%. In real - our standart deviation in large more lower. So our risks are minimal. As we have long/short strategy with full balance long/short side standart deviation from long compensates standart deviation on shorts and vice versa. Other factor that make our risks lower - stocks correllation with index. Our diversification efficient , as avarage correllation on our portfolio 47%.

Portfolio standard deviation

Mistake here. Look to this
Today we calculated our portfolio standart deviation using historical data. Our result - 30%. Wide market deviation - 64%. So we can say that our portfolio is less risky than S&P Index fund investments. By the way yesterday we saw good earnings from Oracle. Thats a good sign for our technology stakes. Our technology stakes export a lot of products abroad, so weak dollar for last quarter have to support their earnings.

Evaluation portfolio's investments ideas

Our portfolio is in small positive zone now, but we are rather confidence about its future nice perfomance. Saying that investment ideas on what portfolio is build now are working. We saw that our portfolio feeling much better on good trendive days where we can saw big changes in S&P. Until today we saw only 3-5 those days on June.
I want to acknowledge that we did some mistake with thin stock. This mistake are in risk managment area. We have some think stocks like DW, TECUA, VOXX. If we would have news on it which will push stock much , we will have big problems to cover our more than 1000 shares stakes if we will need it coz avarage trading volume on this stocks are somelike 100k , etc.

Interesting situation. Stock - WCG

I want to acknowledge that i am not experience stock daytrader. So this situation looks pretty interesting for me. Need to know what behavior to chose when we see something like this. Market in stong down trend, WCG too. I was looking to this stock as its in our portfolio with short position. Nothing special beofre 18-00 Kyiv time. After big down move volume sharply increased and we saw 25c up move. Hm..Sell? Not sure but lets suppose that we sold this for example @17.63. We know that this stock is weak fundamental, so why it will be attractive even intraday on this strong down trend? But if we were enetered @17.63 we should have stop loss , coz up move didnt stop. Ok. Lets look for some bearish candle and volume fading. At price 17.85 we saw something like this. Short again! But again we have stop loss on new uup move and big volume! Heh. What it was? Just fund's buying large stake? Or maybe some speculation? When i am writing this post price comeback down to 17.7$.

Knowing yourself weaknesses you become stronger

Many writers/philosofers tried to build a model of really successfull people. They researched bios of great humans and than tried to found same in character traits, type of thought. For me, I think its critical to know own weak sides. When you know your weak sides you can concentrate on what dont using your weak sides. You can find a best areas for you character, skills. One of managment classics, Peter Druker, were saying that we need to improve our strong sides and its really more important and will give us better results. For example i am not ashamed to be acknowledged that i havent enaough discipline to work intraday now. Maybe its just because i havent chances to concentrate only on this. I understand it fully that at least i will not concentrate only on daytrading i will lose money on it. So i will not even try to put in one daytrading and portfolio running. If i will do so my productivity will be less. I dont like to work with details and work with numbers. So i will prefer to work with philophy, ideas, macro stuff - all ares where i could fully use my type of thought to get bigger pleasure and better results. So guys, concentrate on your strong sides and work on areas where you can use it fully! Be true with youself about your weak sides! Go for better results!

Fund Report

Our fund report you can download here
FundReport
or here
Report

Our potentional stakes

Our potentional stakes
Canadian bank
Canadian financial institutions mostly avoided the worst of the fallout from the credit crisis due to tougher regulation and a more conservative culture that kept them away from risky credit derivatives that hurt so many of their competitors in Europe and on Wall Street.
The problem is that retail banking – one of the main engines of the sector – is deteriorating, with earnings collectively down 10% from the second quarter of 2008.
For expample we are looking for buying TD stake.
Energy/commodities stocks
We are bullish on comodities mostly not by that we see potentional demand increasing but mostly by inflation expectations. We are not sure that real economy demand on commodities will increase huge. We assume “W” vivid structure of economy recovery. With second down wave on august/september 2009.
We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly. For our fund we wanna to acumulate positions in gold, silver, stocks which are producers of commodities. The focus of our fund will be on silver. We have to be happy buy silver companies but silver companies is very expensive on fundamentals. Better way just to buy silver as metal.
On oil OPEK will not increase supply until oil prices will rich 100$. For most OPEK countries 75$ - comfortable price. Other positive on oil was Goldman upgrades to 85$. Before last rally they said about oil growth and then we saw 150$ price .
So we dont saying that this type of stocks will growth, we just saying that they will be strenghter than market.
Technology
Even now we see a nice up in buisness activity of technology stocks. They have a good balance sheets with large cash positions and ready to invest in new buisnesses, innovations. We already have a large stake in technology but we see opportunities even to increase it. Candidats are DELL, CSCO, ORCL

Portfolio. Stakes overview

BCS (current result +9,58%) - we see what we wanted to see. BCS was really attractive and now we have $13.5bn deal to sell its Barclays Global Investors unit to BlackRock.
DW, USG, TECUA - nothing special we had on this stocks, sector.
VOXX - before this stock show its weakness but yesterday we had good report on retail sales. This catalyst pushed stock huge higher, but then we saw pullback. So nothing special now. Just holding short.
MSFT - having some talks about their search engine Bing which they started on 1st of June. Microsoft invested nearly 100mln in this project. Also have talks about their products. They will not sell their own fin program, will make own antivirus program. So with good balance sheet and strong fundametals this stock is on the move now.
IBM - feeling good. They improve their buisness activity now. Looking for oportunities deals. They opened a new center in China to drive the development of high tech railroads, builds networked security system in Chicago, takes social networking to its channel partners, etc.
SOHU - no changes. Exelent fundamentals.
ABFS, CNW, VMED, MHK - no changes.
ABX, NEM, HMY - we see a range this week in gold between 965$ and 945$. We assume gold prices falling in short term period. Our middle and long view is the same.
FWRD - we saw huge up on this due analyst upgraded by KeyBanc Capital Mkts. Bullshit :-) .
SPWRA - up move in oil prices helped this stock to go higher. But now we see nice resistance in oil. We shouldnt expect large up move in oil in short term as we think this growth explaining not by increasing demand on oil as commoditie but just as safe active, inflation hedge, etc.

Professional info systems. WOW! What they can give us!?

Below you can see screenshots with transactions in professional info systems
No words. Just look to the pictures.

Portfolio. New stakes.

New stakes
Long. Technology
IBM
SOHU
MSFT

IBM
MSN rank 8
large non-US revenue base
IBM's Q109 results indicate its strong position in emerging markets, which should continue to help drive growth.
Company has focused on driving its bottom line through cost cutting efforts. It re-affirmed EPS guidance for the full year of 2009 and 2010. Although, revenue is not expected to grow by much, expecting margin improvements in 2009.

MSFT
MSN rank 8
Big hedge fund support
Nice classical coefficients

SOHU
MSN rank 9
Sohu - is the second-largest Internet portal and one of the most well-known online brands in China. Sohu's pipeline for its new online games remains strong and is expected to drive meaningful growth in late 2009 and 2010.
The company spun-off part of its gaming division Changyou.com via an ADS offering, which is expected to increase its user base and help gain shares in the MMORPG (massively multi-player online role-playing game) market. We are also encouraged by the company's growing cash balance as well as its debt-free balance sheet.
We believe that the current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value. Concerns related to online ad spending, as consumers remain cautious in their spending.

Shorts
Industrial Goods
MHK - textile
SPWRA - general conducator
VOXX - Electronics Wholesale
TECUA - General Building Materials

Also we shorted aditional 700 shared on DW for portfolio long/short balancing.

Portfolio overview

My thanks to SeekingAlpha . Its wonderfull resource!
For today we have fully balanced portfolio on Beta coefficient.
BCS - 3000 shares
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
4,9 14,63 9,6 0,63 28,97
Can Slim Rating - 82
Key Abu Dhabi investor on Barclays sold his stake yesterday. Analysts began to speak that this is a time for profit taking on financials. We have a risk that we will see self powered down trend on financials on this catalyst. But also we can suppose thats nothing fundamentaly change on this and BCS is still attractive for investors and they could use this possibility to long BCS.
Paulson & Co hedge fund have short stake on Barclays @16.86
BCS havent now institutional support.
If BCS will not find large investor in short time - we will close this position.


Below our gold stakes. About our look on precious metals i wrote before.
NEM
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
34,17 7,85 0,82 2,73 11,66
Can Slim Rating 74
MSN Rank 9


ABX
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
52,31 4,11 1,1 2,14 20,31
Can Slim Rating 73
MSN Rank 6


HMY
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
15,12 6,29 0 1,4 32,35
Can Slim Rating 93
MSN Rank 9

Shorts
Our trucking picks
Trucking shipment data is often a gauge of overall economic health, because truckers haul more than two-thirds of all U.S. manufactured and retail goods.
The American Trucking Association's advance seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index fell 2.2 percent in April, after plunging 4.5 percent in March.
Compared with April 2008, tonnage shrank 13.2 percent, marking the worst year-over-year decrease of the current cycle and the largest drop in thirteen years.
We can expect trucking growth when we will see recovering in real sectors of economy. This is sector which have delay from overall economy. We are looking to USA indicators of buissness cycle. Here we can see that down trend is over. So lets keep eyes on it closely.

CNW
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-15,53 1,3 3,34 -15,82
Can Slim Rating 61
MSN Rank 4


ABFS
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
282,75 0,4 2,2 1,15 -5,34
Can Slim Rating 45
MSN Rank 6


FWRD
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
20,34 14,88 1,4 2,81 -3,21
Can Slim Rating 20
MSN Rank 4

Media

VMED
P/E ROE% Div Yield% Price to book Value Net profit margin%
-41,57 2,2 0,86 -16,46
Can Slim Rating 59
MSN Rank 3

Industrial goods - Building Materials
DW
USG



Our portfolio wasnt hedged yesterday and overnight. All short positions was opened today in the morning

Idea on gold

I see that many hedge fund managers are long now on gold or gold trusts , etc. I think its not just hedging in classical term. We have big inflations expectations and doubtful market growth. If no risks will be converted in to reality we will see continue of market growth and gold growth too. Market will growth by better fundamentals, gold will growth by inflation expectations - if economy is began to recover - inflation wiil begin growing quick. If we dont see real economic recovering now, we will see second wave of recesion. It will mean more money to print again, bigger inflation in future, so market in this scenario will go down again, but gold after some down move, will grow even more quickly.

Portfolio strategy

Our target is to build portfolio which will give good returns independent from market conditions. In portfolio we have strenght stocks in long and weak stocks in short side that are balanced (equal). Our ideal target to get this situation. Let’s suppose that we have ideal balance in long and short side of portfolio and market is in zero point. If market changing up on 1 basis point, long side ads 2 basis point and short side ads 1 basis point. So on market move on 1 basis point our overall result is 2-1=1. Next market making move down on 1basis poing. Long side minus 1, short side minus 2. So overall 1-1+2=2. Now we are in profit of 2 basis points. So in every next market’s step in 1 basis point our portfolio growing on 1 basis point.
For balancing long and short side of portfolio we are using Beta coefficient. If we have different Beta we entering a position with more or less quantity for making position equal.
At first we are looking which sectors are the most interesting for long/short. This analyses we do with calculating next data Market cap, P/E, ROE%, DIV Yield%, Price to book value, Net profit margin%, price to free cash flow. We pick most interesting on this and then doing discretionary analyses. We researching expections on this sector, catalysts, risks, events, etc. Then we took stocks from the interesting sectors and doing the same analyses on companies. So we have to be sure that we are picked the strength stocks from strenght sectors and the weakest stocks from the weakest sector. Also we are using technical analyses for sectors charts and stocks to identify important levels. We dont entering in market on all portfolio in one time. We trieng to enter in right time on every stock. So we have some risks, because we have a time when our portfolio is not hedged in all.
Also for picks we are using two ratings.
1st – Stocks Chekup on www.investors.com . Its site of CAN SLIM system developer – Williahm O’Neil. He developed this system many years agos, its very popular, but this system representing not changing financial principles and CAN SLIM will work for many many years more. CAN SLIM system developed for picking stocks with amasing potentional of growth. So we use it for an evaluation of growth potentional. Below we can see basic principles of CAN SLIM:
C & A
Sizing up a stocks earnings growth.
N
The biggest stock winners had new products, new management or new conditions.
New price highs offer new opportunities.
S
One of the most basic economic principles is the law of supply and demand.
L
Steer clear of stocks that are laggards.
I
When it comes to investing, it pays to watch the pros.
M
This section will help you learn to size up the health and direction of the stock market.

2nd – MSN Rank.
It includes fundamental, ownership, valuation, technical analyses. We use it to see strenght or weak stock are. For buy the best picks are with rank between 6 and 9. Its show that company have potentional for improve. Very good if it is confirmed with our rating of potentional growth – CAN SLIM. The same, only reversal, for our short positions.

Before the market open

My holding BAC overnight giving me today 2000$ after analyst upgrades and positive words of Tim Geitner about stress test results. Today will be realesed stress results, market are filling positive about it and financial sector growing a lot. Will see.. Will resulsts will be worse or the same as market thinking can be nice shorts oportunities on financial sector. So, today looking atentive to the crowd mood about XLF. Play against crowd and make money :-)