Guys! Need your opinion. My english is not so good to represent all my thoughts. On my current english language level i cant show all picture that i see. I wanna write about economic processes, philosophy, psyhology of trading/investing, more details on strategies, opinions, etc. One my english reader said that he just leave my page because its hard for him to read my writes on enlish. He said that my grammer, style is poor. When i began writes on english i wanna to attract readers from whole world. I understand that its too hard to make good audience from whole world with this poor english. So when i write on english my foreign readers cant understand me fully and with comfort and russian speaken readers cant understand me fully too. Plus, as i wrote above, i cant write all my thoughts in english. So guys, i wanna to listen your opinions. Its really important for me. Leave opinions in comments please.
Ребята! Мне необходимо ваше мнение! Мой английский не настолько хорош, что бы передать все мои мысли. На моем текущем уровне английского языка, я не могу вам показать всю картину, которою вижу я. Хочу писать об экономических процессах, философии, психологии трейдинга\инвестирования, более детально рассматривать стратегии, мнения и т.п. Один мой англоязычный читатель сказал мне, что он вынужден покидать мою страницу быстро, так как ему тяжело воспринимать мой английский - грамматику, прерывистые предложения.. Когда я начинал писать на английском, хотел привель читателей со всего мира. Но я понимаю что сложно создать хорошую аудиторию англоязычных читателей с моим не высоким уровнем английского языка. Таким образом я нахожусь "и не там, и не там". Англоязычным читателям сложно меня понимать из за некоректного английского, а русскоязычным конечно же тяжело читать английский. Таким образом я не могу выдавать хороший продукт и для тех и для тех. И мне хотелось бы писать о более сложных вещах, написание которых на английском мне очень затруднительно. Ребята, очень хочу услышать ваше мнение! Пожалуйста, оставьте комментарий.! Спасибо!
Showing posts with label speculator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label speculator. Show all posts
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Bearish propaganda
This week opening with huge down move on US Markets. S&P broke 900 points level.
Was interesting to see news background today. It is looking like propaganda. In one time all powerfull financials began to say the same about economy. Trichet said about potentional new wave of unstability, said that we are still in down trend in economy. World Bank said that the recession will be deeper than they forecast in March. Interesting change after 3 month stong bull rally and good earnings. Also we saw a strong sell from insiders. S&P losing 2,5% on Monday's evening. The largest from June 2007. This is interesting that this all news brought down on market on one day. FED on wednesday can keep bearish move going. Oil finishing 2nd day in strong down trend. Think if we will see self powered trend by all catalysts above we will see oil comeback to much lower levels.. Hard to say.. For now maybe 55-60$ area. Commodity can fall hard coz current prices represents not real demand but hopes of economy recovery and inflation expactations.
Was interesting to see news background today. It is looking like propaganda. In one time all powerfull financials began to say the same about economy. Trichet said about potentional new wave of unstability, said that we are still in down trend in economy. World Bank said that the recession will be deeper than they forecast in March. Interesting change after 3 month stong bull rally and good earnings. Also we saw a strong sell from insiders. S&P losing 2,5% on Monday's evening. The largest from June 2007. This is interesting that this all news brought down on market on one day. FED on wednesday can keep bearish move going. Oil finishing 2nd day in strong down trend. Think if we will see self powered trend by all catalysts above we will see oil comeback to much lower levels.. Hard to say.. For now maybe 55-60$ area. Commodity can fall hard coz current prices represents not real demand but hopes of economy recovery and inflation expactations.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Economic reforms - new stakes in portfolio
Now we have so many stakes that i even cant post full screen shot of portfolio :-). In future we will concentrate only on best ideas and we will have less stakes. Just need to keep normal level of diversification. But on other we need to remember that diversification mean from ignorance as Warren Buffet saying :-) .
Before we had an idea to long canadian banks due to its strong fundamentals and financial health. Today we realesed this idea by hedging with short big american banks. We looked to our database and found that STI, JPM, KEY have to be the weakest in near future. Also with shorting this banks we hedged it with our old idea to long CSCO from technology. Large growth of broadbend in Asia will support solid CSCO fundamentals.
Also we now have a hedged stakes in healthcare. Due to Obama healthcare reform plan we shorted health insurance companies and longed pharmaceuticals companies which making generic drugs. So we shorted WCG, UNH and longed JNJ, PFE.
Thanks Victor from Belarus, he will program for us portfolio tool which we need so. It will calculate all numbers we need.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Portfolio. Stakes overview
BCS (current result +9,58%) - we see what we wanted to see. BCS was really attractive and now we have $13.5bn deal to sell its Barclays Global Investors unit to BlackRock.
DW, USG, TECUA - nothing special we had on this stocks, sector.
VOXX - before this stock show its weakness but yesterday we had good report on retail sales. This catalyst pushed stock huge higher, but then we saw pullback. So nothing special now. Just holding short.
MSFT - having some talks about their search engine Bing which they started on 1st of June. Microsoft invested nearly 100mln in this project. Also have talks about their products. They will not sell their own fin program, will make own antivirus program. So with good balance sheet and strong fundametals this stock is on the move now.
IBM - feeling good. They improve their buisness activity now. Looking for oportunities deals. They opened a new center in China to drive the development of high tech railroads, builds networked security system in Chicago, takes social networking to its channel partners, etc.
SOHU - no changes. Exelent fundamentals.
ABFS, CNW, VMED, MHK - no changes.
ABX, NEM, HMY - we see a range this week in gold between 965$ and 945$. We assume gold prices falling in short term period. Our middle and long view is the same.
FWRD - we saw huge up on this due analyst upgraded by KeyBanc Capital Mkts. Bullshit :-) .
SPWRA - up move in oil prices helped this stock to go higher. But now we see nice resistance in oil. We shouldnt expect large up move in oil in short term as we think this growth explaining not by increasing demand on oil as commoditie but just as safe active, inflation hedge, etc.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Monday. Portfolio
Coefficient which we will calculate for our portfolio
Alpha. To see how effectively we running fund.
Beta. To see fund volatility.
Long's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including long's beta). Do we really bought strong stocks?
Short's relative strenght (comparing with S&P including short's beta). Do we really sold weak stocks?
Drawing a chart of fund valuation every day.
Other coefficient that figured in portfolio theory is not usefull for us know. 1st because we havent history of our fund. 2nd - its developed for more long term investing.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
First positions in our portfolio
Today we bought
BCS@18.25
ABX@37.20
HMY@11.8
NEM@48.00
BCS - one of our banks stock which was on the buy list. We use opportunity which market gave us today. BSC fell on 14% today. One of Abu Dhabi investors from royal family went out from this stock on what he entered on October 2008 and made 54%. He explained it that they want to have free money for energy investing.
Three other positions ABX, HMY, NEM are gold stocks. We plan to make good bet on gold, silver, commodities companies as i wrote below.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Industry analyses. Technology
All the trends in technology are still down. It is known that the numbers in the Durable Goods report do bounce around from month to month so it would be foolish to ignore these trends. Lets focus especially closely on the last few months. Here is where things get interesting. Tech indicators saying that low points were hit three to six months ago. The data for Shipments and New Orders have since then have shown a struggle to establish a bottom. We now see a few months of what could be characterized as erratic performance but definitely no new lows.
It is safe to say the tech sector is on the mend. Tech stocks have performed strongly over the last few months in anticipation of a recovery. The data do not yet show a V-shaped recovery but they do seem to show some kind of recovery in its early stages.
XLK is approaching its recent high, it is solidly above its 200-day moving average and its 50-day MA has just crossed above its 200-day MA.
I find interesting that most of technology companies not allocated much cash to equities. With so much cash and minimal or no debt on their balance sheets, these companies have the means to continue investing in internal growth initiatives and acquisitions.
Relative Valuation Chart -This graph shows the Percent to Target Current (Valuation Attractiveness) for a universe relative to the overall market. Values greater than 1 indicate the universe is more undervalued than the market, while values less than 1 indicate the opposite. The red line identifies the historical median value to provide a basis to understand valuation levels relative to historic norms. This example illustrates that the median Technology company is undervalued relative to the market currently and has been trading at a discount to its historic relative valuation, indicating a potentially attractive opportunity.
Technology Firms Continue to Downsize. There could be a number of reasons for the job cuts but it all boils down to “cost reduction”. Recession is always time to look to buisness and reorganize it more efficient. So we can expect that technology companies will become even more healthy.
Conclusion
Technology one of the most attractive industries in US economy now. Most of them have very strong balance sheets and only waiting for some economic growth. Classical coefficient saying that they are much undervalued.
It is safe to say the tech sector is on the mend. Tech stocks have performed strongly over the last few months in anticipation of a recovery. The data do not yet show a V-shaped recovery but they do seem to show some kind of recovery in its early stages.
XLK is approaching its recent high, it is solidly above its 200-day moving average and its 50-day MA has just crossed above its 200-day MA.
I find interesting that most of technology companies not allocated much cash to equities. With so much cash and minimal or no debt on their balance sheets, these companies have the means to continue investing in internal growth initiatives and acquisitions.
Relative Valuation Chart -This graph shows the Percent to Target Current (Valuation Attractiveness) for a universe relative to the overall market. Values greater than 1 indicate the universe is more undervalued than the market, while values less than 1 indicate the opposite. The red line identifies the historical median value to provide a basis to understand valuation levels relative to historic norms. This example illustrates that the median Technology company is undervalued relative to the market currently and has been trading at a discount to its historic relative valuation, indicating a potentially attractive opportunity.
Technology Firms Continue to Downsize. There could be a number of reasons for the job cuts but it all boils down to “cost reduction”. Recession is always time to look to buisness and reorganize it more efficient. So we can expect that technology companies will become even more healthy.
Conclusion
Technology one of the most attractive industries in US economy now. Most of them have very strong balance sheets and only waiting for some economic growth. Classical coefficient saying that they are much undervalued.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Industry analysis. Financials.
Really it is hard to imagine any banks are in trouble with everything the US taxpayer has given up for them....
It is widely agreed that the banks are undercapitalized.
Further confirmation that the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets comes from Goldman Sachs’ Financial Stress Index (FSI). This index includes four factors related to the degree of impairment of financial markets: counterparty risk (US dollar 3-month LIBOR-OIS), liquidity risk (MBS to treasury repo differentials), refunding risk (commercial paper outstanding) and broader risk aversion (percentage of monies held in money-market mutual funds in relation to equity market capitalization).
FDIC's Fund Reserve Ration Plunges to 0.27% of Deposits. Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, released the latest information on “problem” banks on Wednesday. The list now includes 305 institutions, up from 252 at the end of 2008. We have had 36 bank failures this year and if no more than a quarter of the “problem” institutions fail, we will be over 110 bank failures for the year. But i think thats a delay indicator. Bank closures are not a leading indicator of economic health and can continue for some time even after the economy begins to recover. A lot from deposits will be invested. We havent much risk on it now. President Barack Obama on Wednesday afternoon signed into law two major housing bills, one of which would allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to temporarily borrow as much as $500 billion from the Treasury Department to protect the deposits of bank customers.
On the financials - we can use GS as an indicator of health. Goldman Sachs (GS) is one of the few companies with increased profit estimates in the marketplace today. Over the past 90 days their current quarter profit estimates have increased from $1.92 a share to $2.44 a share, a 27% increase. Likewise the next quarter estimates and the year profit estimates have also moved higher with the analysts that cover the stock.
Some banks announced that they will be able to begin to repay the government.
We see that bank's CDS become to cost less.
Goverment are all in financials, they will not give one more time possibility to drop.
The Fed, in a report issued Thursday, said commercial banks averaged $38.153 billion in daily borrowing over the week that ended Wednesday. That was down slightly from $38.155 billion in the week ending May 20. Investment firms didn't draw any loans over the past week from the Fed program. In the prior week the firms also took a pass on the emergency loans, something that hadn't happened since early September. Firms drew just $482 million in the week that ended May 13. Good trend.
Conclusion If nothing will be changed - we will see big growth in financials. It will not be exponential, just strong selfpowered trend. We have risks, but more we growing in financials - less risks we have. More financials shares getting up - more confidence crodw will have on it. More confidence crowd will have - less wholes in balance sheets we will see. Governments main target - to keep crowd confidence about finacials growing. So we will see a proccess which very nice described by Soros theory of reflexivity. Banks are good look by classic fundamentals, exept wholes in their balance sheets. But i write above how rather quick this wholes can disappear. The contrarian opinion analyses saying that financials are interesting for long. The most people just saying about stability growth in financials but still dont make big bets on it. So, nice potentional for growth, maybe only speculative now, but speculative growth can be a reason for a next fundamental growth.
It is widely agreed that the banks are undercapitalized.
Further confirmation that the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets comes from Goldman Sachs’ Financial Stress Index (FSI). This index includes four factors related to the degree of impairment of financial markets: counterparty risk (US dollar 3-month LIBOR-OIS), liquidity risk (MBS to treasury repo differentials), refunding risk (commercial paper outstanding) and broader risk aversion (percentage of monies held in money-market mutual funds in relation to equity market capitalization).
FDIC's Fund Reserve Ration Plunges to 0.27% of Deposits. Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, released the latest information on “problem” banks on Wednesday. The list now includes 305 institutions, up from 252 at the end of 2008. We have had 36 bank failures this year and if no more than a quarter of the “problem” institutions fail, we will be over 110 bank failures for the year. But i think thats a delay indicator. Bank closures are not a leading indicator of economic health and can continue for some time even after the economy begins to recover. A lot from deposits will be invested. We havent much risk on it now. President Barack Obama on Wednesday afternoon signed into law two major housing bills, one of which would allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to temporarily borrow as much as $500 billion from the Treasury Department to protect the deposits of bank customers.
On the financials - we can use GS as an indicator of health. Goldman Sachs (GS) is one of the few companies with increased profit estimates in the marketplace today. Over the past 90 days their current quarter profit estimates have increased from $1.92 a share to $2.44 a share, a 27% increase. Likewise the next quarter estimates and the year profit estimates have also moved higher with the analysts that cover the stock.
Some banks announced that they will be able to begin to repay the government.
We see that bank's CDS become to cost less.
Goverment are all in financials, they will not give one more time possibility to drop.
The Fed, in a report issued Thursday, said commercial banks averaged $38.153 billion in daily borrowing over the week that ended Wednesday. That was down slightly from $38.155 billion in the week ending May 20. Investment firms didn't draw any loans over the past week from the Fed program. In the prior week the firms also took a pass on the emergency loans, something that hadn't happened since early September. Firms drew just $482 million in the week that ended May 13. Good trend.
Conclusion If nothing will be changed - we will see big growth in financials. It will not be exponential, just strong selfpowered trend. We have risks, but more we growing in financials - less risks we have. More financials shares getting up - more confidence crodw will have on it. More confidence crowd will have - less wholes in balance sheets we will see. Governments main target - to keep crowd confidence about finacials growing. So we will see a proccess which very nice described by Soros theory of reflexivity. Banks are good look by classic fundamentals, exept wholes in their balance sheets. But i write above how rather quick this wholes can disappear. The contrarian opinion analyses saying that financials are interesting for long. The most people just saying about stability growth in financials but still dont make big bets on it. So, nice potentional for growth, maybe only speculative now, but speculative growth can be a reason for a next fundamental growth.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Portfolio strategy
Our target is to build portfolio which will give good returns independent from market conditions. In portfolio we have strenght stocks in long and weak stocks in short side that are balanced (equal). Our ideal target to get this situation. Let’s suppose that we have ideal balance in long and short side of portfolio and market is in zero point. If market changing up on 1 basis point, long side ads 2 basis point and short side ads 1 basis point. So on market move on 1 basis point our overall result is 2-1=1. Next market making move down on 1basis poing. Long side minus 1, short side minus 2. So overall 1-1+2=2. Now we are in profit of 2 basis points. So in every next market’s step in 1 basis point our portfolio growing on 1 basis point.
For balancing long and short side of portfolio we are using Beta coefficient. If we have different Beta we entering a position with more or less quantity for making position equal.
At first we are looking which sectors are the most interesting for long/short. This analyses we do with calculating next data Market cap, P/E, ROE%, DIV Yield%, Price to book value, Net profit margin%, price to free cash flow. We pick most interesting on this and then doing discretionary analyses. We researching expections on this sector, catalysts, risks, events, etc. Then we took stocks from the interesting sectors and doing the same analyses on companies. So we have to be sure that we are picked the strength stocks from strenght sectors and the weakest stocks from the weakest sector. Also we are using technical analyses for sectors charts and stocks to identify important levels. We dont entering in market on all portfolio in one time. We trieng to enter in right time on every stock. So we have some risks, because we have a time when our portfolio is not hedged in all.
Also for picks we are using two ratings.
1st – Stocks Chekup on www.investors.com . Its site of CAN SLIM system developer – Williahm O’Neil. He developed this system many years agos, its very popular, but this system representing not changing financial principles and CAN SLIM will work for many many years more. CAN SLIM system developed for picking stocks with amasing potentional of growth. So we use it for an evaluation of growth potentional. Below we can see basic principles of CAN SLIM:
C & A
Sizing up a stocks earnings growth.
N
The biggest stock winners had new products, new management or new conditions.
New price highs offer new opportunities.
S
One of the most basic economic principles is the law of supply and demand.
L
Steer clear of stocks that are laggards.
I
When it comes to investing, it pays to watch the pros.
M
This section will help you learn to size up the health and direction of the stock market.
2nd – MSN Rank.
It includes fundamental, ownership, valuation, technical analyses. We use it to see strenght or weak stock are. For buy the best picks are with rank between 6 and 9. Its show that company have potentional for improve. Very good if it is confirmed with our rating of potentional growth – CAN SLIM. The same, only reversal, for our short positions.
For balancing long and short side of portfolio we are using Beta coefficient. If we have different Beta we entering a position with more or less quantity for making position equal.
At first we are looking which sectors are the most interesting for long/short. This analyses we do with calculating next data Market cap, P/E, ROE%, DIV Yield%, Price to book value, Net profit margin%, price to free cash flow. We pick most interesting on this and then doing discretionary analyses. We researching expections on this sector, catalysts, risks, events, etc. Then we took stocks from the interesting sectors and doing the same analyses on companies. So we have to be sure that we are picked the strength stocks from strenght sectors and the weakest stocks from the weakest sector. Also we are using technical analyses for sectors charts and stocks to identify important levels. We dont entering in market on all portfolio in one time. We trieng to enter in right time on every stock. So we have some risks, because we have a time when our portfolio is not hedged in all.
Also for picks we are using two ratings.
1st – Stocks Chekup on www.investors.com . Its site of CAN SLIM system developer – Williahm O’Neil. He developed this system many years agos, its very popular, but this system representing not changing financial principles and CAN SLIM will work for many many years more. CAN SLIM system developed for picking stocks with amasing potentional of growth. So we use it for an evaluation of growth potentional. Below we can see basic principles of CAN SLIM:
C & A
Sizing up a stocks earnings growth.
N
The biggest stock winners had new products, new management or new conditions.
New price highs offer new opportunities.
S
One of the most basic economic principles is the law of supply and demand.
L
Steer clear of stocks that are laggards.
I
When it comes to investing, it pays to watch the pros.
M
This section will help you learn to size up the health and direction of the stock market.
2nd – MSN Rank.
It includes fundamental, ownership, valuation, technical analyses. We use it to see strenght or weak stock are. For buy the best picks are with rank between 6 and 9. Its show that company have potentional for improve. Very good if it is confirmed with our rating of potentional growth – CAN SLIM. The same, only reversal, for our short positions.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Some writes about our portfolio creating
We developed strategy for our speculative portfolio. We have some modifications of it. so i think we will have at least 2 portfolios. One of them will be more wide. Maybe i will write about strategy in some time. So know i want to show you small potentional part of our portfolio.
Our potentional part of speculative portfolio short part.
This all picks are from Services sector. This short side of portfolio will be added by stocks from industrial goods sector.
DAL
ABFS
CNW
FWRD
VMED
Maybe you should value this picks and write me if you will do it. Just interesting.
Our potentional part of speculative portfolio short part.
This all picks are from Services sector. This short side of portfolio will be added by stocks from industrial goods sector.
DAL
ABFS
CNW
FWRD
VMED
Maybe you should value this picks and write me if you will do it. Just interesting.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Tuesday's preperation
I think time came, for what I wrote in the middle of March. Crowd follows after the promises of government. But now Fed changed its view to an economic and decline their forecast for this year. They expect lower GDP, higher unemployment. The same did Russian goverment. They expect big whole in a budget for 9%. This rally also was supported by a good earning from US companies, analytics upgradets, but its over already. Big possibility that we will see GM bankrupcy soon, banks will not be able to increase their results. On the technical view all is simple. Now we see double top on the major indexs and i expect that major support region 880 @SPX will be broken today. Now we have very interesting situation with North Korea. In which measureas the conflict of world public with them serious? Maybe they just joking with their misseles? :-) . Maybe we have possibility to by Korean stocks and this all is just a panic? Big hegde fund i think must have nice geopolitic for this situation :-) . Maybe we have arbitrage possibilities to short american soldiery companies and buy korean stocks?
17:00 - CB Consumer Confidence can give some impulse for market.
My stocks to look and trades look via twitter. Link to my page at left side of the blog.
Wish you luck today!
17:00 - CB Consumer Confidence can give some impulse for market.
My stocks to look and trades look via twitter. Link to my page at left side of the blog.
Wish you luck today!
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Thursday's preparation
As i am some busy with construction more long term portfolio, for today i brought next article from this blog . I cheked it . This guy prepared nicely. Today I will use his picks.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Tuesday's review
Looking for the gainers of premarket, i found an idea - to make basket from the top 5-10 gainers and short it due trading hours. :-) . Ofcoz , to do it , market have to weak or at least neutral. Maybe someone wanna to do statistical calculations to know is it work or no? Today again, stocks, which had positive background, gained on premarket, was trading in minus zone all day on mixed market. One of the exception - MS, which announced about money back to TARP. I traded nice on it. Here is screenshot.
And at once daily chart
I longed MS @29.04 when S&P was on way to the high board of the range. But we still had lunch time at US so havent enaough powerfull to brekout higher. Before the entering a position i saw that MS making my favorite pattern for daytrade - an ascending triangle. When lunch time ended, S&P was on the bottom of a range and began to growth. Then as we expected we saw a breakout on MS on large volume. S&P began to trade on high board of a range and MS grew higher and higher. I was not very happy to see this. Then S&P breakout key resistance, which pushed MS to 29.86 high. Next i saw this things. We made on MS small red candle with a big volume. This was good signal for potentional reverse. And as on every breakout i refreshed Dr. Bret tweeter and saw this "steenbab1:58 PM CT - Highs in ES not confirmed so far by IWM, XLF, XLV. We continue to see absence of signif selling in TICK.". So we could expect that this breakout was false. And really we saw this on market and traderfeed's twitter - "steenbab2:40 PM CT - Once again we see how the non-confirmed moves tend to reverse, continuing the range trade. Back l8r today.". I saw that MS made support @29.5 lvl, so changed stop loss order to 29.45. In really, when i expect false breakout i should close MS with a big profit. But i hoped, just hoped, that this non-confirmed breakout will push market higher. I put stop loss on MS in the way - if S&P will break support, only on this situation my stop loss will execute. Maybe this was not ideal from me, but even on this i am satisfied with this trade. I made another 41 pips of profit.
I had another small trade during a day, but it was not intersting. Just came a victim of false breakout @USB.
Also had new ideas on pennystocks. Wait for tommrrow udpates.
Also we made began to make speculative portfolio with active managment. I will also write some info on it.
Good night!
And at once daily chart
I longed MS @29.04 when S&P was on way to the high board of the range. But we still had lunch time at US so havent enaough powerfull to brekout higher. Before the entering a position i saw that MS making my favorite pattern for daytrade - an ascending triangle. When lunch time ended, S&P was on the bottom of a range and began to growth. Then as we expected we saw a breakout on MS on large volume. S&P began to trade on high board of a range and MS grew higher and higher. I was not very happy to see this. Then S&P breakout key resistance, which pushed MS to 29.86 high. Next i saw this things. We made on MS small red candle with a big volume. This was good signal for potentional reverse. And as on every breakout i refreshed Dr. Bret tweeter and saw this "steenbab1:58 PM CT - Highs in ES not confirmed so far by IWM, XLF, XLV. We continue to see absence of signif selling in TICK.". So we could expect that this breakout was false. And really we saw this on market and traderfeed's twitter - "steenbab2:40 PM CT - Once again we see how the non-confirmed moves tend to reverse, continuing the range trade. Back l8r today.". I saw that MS made support @29.5 lvl, so changed stop loss order to 29.45. In really, when i expect false breakout i should close MS with a big profit. But i hoped, just hoped, that this non-confirmed breakout will push market higher. I put stop loss on MS in the way - if S&P will break support, only on this situation my stop loss will execute. Maybe this was not ideal from me, but even on this i am satisfied with this trade. I made another 41 pips of profit.
I had another small trade during a day, but it was not intersting. Just came a victim of false breakout @USB.
Also had new ideas on pennystocks. Wait for tommrrow udpates.
Also we made began to make speculative portfolio with active managment. I will also write some info on it.
Good night!
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Tuesday's preperation
Due to TraderFeed's statistical analyses we can expect trend down to day. article . Also Dr. Bret said that guys from quantifiableedges and markettells to the similar conclusion due their statistical analyses. As i wrote some below, yesterday we saw strong trend up on light volume. So we can suppose that instutionals investors wasnt on the market yesterday and this up move wasnt important for a market in more long perspective.
Its came more realistic when todays market drivers were publicated. "U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to Record-Low Pace; Permits Decline"
Tim Sykes saying: "No trades on Friday due to my moving apartments…lots of potential plays due to stock promoters being back in the game biiiigtime…" So we really can expect a lot of good patterns in pennystocks for short.
LBAS - potentional short. Look for sidemove. This stock was up clear on manipulations.
BCRX, LBAS - pennystocks for short, but no good technical patterns do it now.
Stocks which are today's drivers. Positive news background before the marekt:
GS, MS, MGM
Negative news background - MXB, IVZ
When market will open, try to evaluate in what measure news in the market and if they have possiblity to move this stocks more up
Its came more realistic when todays market drivers were publicated. "U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to Record-Low Pace; Permits Decline"
Tim Sykes saying: "No trades on Friday due to my moving apartments…lots of potential plays due to stock promoters being back in the game biiiigtime…" So we really can expect a lot of good patterns in pennystocks for short.
LBAS - potentional short. Look for sidemove. This stock was up clear on manipulations.
BCRX, LBAS - pennystocks for short, but no good technical patterns do it now.
Stocks which are today's drivers. Positive news background before the marekt:
GS, MS, MGM
Negative news background - MXB, IVZ
When market will open, try to evaluate in what measure news in the market and if they have possiblity to move this stocks more up
Monday's review
Lacking any economic catalysts to begin the week stocks started the day off gapping higher. Volume tracked lower for much of the day indicating institutional players were sitting on the sidelines staying away from the action. It appeared the action was driven by short-sellers covering their positions. It was certainly disappointing to see volume come in lower on such a large percentage move on the indexes. At this point, a day with gains is nice but at some point we need accumulation to support this uptrend.
For my surprie, Ford was one of the weakest stocks in today's market. It closed only with +0.18% gain and traded for a long time in minus day during a day. Hmmm.. If u can explain this, write in the comments please.
My other pick to look for today was COT. I suposed that this stocks is much stronger then market. And really, we saw +8.31% gain but we didnt see good patterns to enter.
HEB - its really my winner. Gained +48%. Still waiting announcement about their drug which is expected this week.
VNDA - was another big gainer but we didnt see trading it @10$ region, so we didnt enter long on it.
Today i made a mistake with MGM. News was focused today on this stock. I entered @8.5 range breakout (for long position) but this breakout was false and MGM traded in downside range with small angle. Only after lunch it began to go with market and closed for +13.95%. Sounds horriblle but i didnt estimate, when i was enetering a position, that news about JP morgan upgrade, Kerkorian purchase all in market already. Stock gained for that moment 10% already. Even strong market couldnt to push it higher for a long time.
Today world perceived very good the victory of N party on elections in India. If i now mistaken Indian Stock Index gained nearly 20%. We have intersting situatin in Indian bank which trading on NYSE - IBN . No question that this was very tasty short on 30$ breakout. But even on weak market this level hold good. I waited for 30$ breakout to enter short and after lunch of it entered it and we could close this position on 29.29 in last minutes of market. But why we didnt do this thing during trading day. Why we did not buy at 30$ and sell at 30.5 region? We could profit doing this many times today.
We would have no troubles today with this powerfull up trend if we would just to listen to this expirience man on twitter - TraderFeed or to his indicators. Even looking to a simple tick we could made nice daytrading profit. Tick always indicated uptrend today. And today's moving up was confirmed good with sectors, indexes.
For my surprie, Ford was one of the weakest stocks in today's market. It closed only with +0.18% gain and traded for a long time in minus day during a day. Hmmm.. If u can explain this, write in the comments please.
My other pick to look for today was COT. I suposed that this stocks is much stronger then market. And really, we saw +8.31% gain but we didnt see good patterns to enter.
HEB - its really my winner. Gained +48%. Still waiting announcement about their drug which is expected this week.
VNDA - was another big gainer but we didnt see trading it @10$ region, so we didnt enter long on it.
Today i made a mistake with MGM. News was focused today on this stock. I entered @8.5 range breakout (for long position) but this breakout was false and MGM traded in downside range with small angle. Only after lunch it began to go with market and closed for +13.95%. Sounds horriblle but i didnt estimate, when i was enetering a position, that news about JP morgan upgrade, Kerkorian purchase all in market already. Stock gained for that moment 10% already. Even strong market couldnt to push it higher for a long time.
Today world perceived very good the victory of N party on elections in India. If i now mistaken Indian Stock Index gained nearly 20%. We have intersting situatin in Indian bank which trading on NYSE - IBN . No question that this was very tasty short on 30$ breakout. But even on weak market this level hold good. I waited for 30$ breakout to enter short and after lunch of it entered it and we could close this position on 29.29 in last minutes of market. But why we didnt do this thing during trading day. Why we did not buy at 30$ and sell at 30.5 region? We could profit doing this many times today.
We would have no troubles today with this powerfull up trend if we would just to listen to this expirience man on twitter - TraderFeed or to his indicators. Even looking to a simple tick we could made nice daytrading profit. Tick always indicated uptrend today. And today's moving up was confirmed good with sectors, indexes.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Monday. Preparation
Today we have monday and lets make a great trading week!
We begin with pennystocks picks
VNDA
- i wanted to short this stock with new drug on friday @11$ breakout. Technically it was very good, but i didnt understand fully a growth on new drug and also TimSykes , pennystock guru, here is his site was bullish on this stock. If we were short this stock, we could close with nearly 90 pips profit on 10$ region, but.. This stock was really stronger then market, it closed @11.15 and market , in general, were weak. So i think TimSykes were more right about this stock. As i understand we have a smooth process of promoting companies drug.. I am not sure really but i will try to enter long if we will have pullback to 10$ again.
COT - still stronger then market after earnings. Earnings changed from 0.28$ loss to 0.30$ profit. In general this is still strong stock. Lets just looking for it.
HEB is awaiting FDA approval on the drug Ampligen which is in orphan status. Investors seem to be buying in before the announcement which is expected in the next week.
Now market dont give us many good patterns in pennystocks.
F - Ford is looking strong after stock offering. This is potentional buy. Can find good entry point on monday. But more better i think to find weak stock with the same volatility to make hedge deal.
I am pretty satisfied how my hedge deal with shorting CSCO and buying MSFT are working. Now have profits in this deals.
Wait for updates!
We begin with pennystocks picks
VNDA
- i wanted to short this stock with new drug on friday @11$ breakout. Technically it was very good, but i didnt understand fully a growth on new drug and also TimSykes , pennystock guru, here is his site was bullish on this stock. If we were short this stock, we could close with nearly 90 pips profit on 10$ region, but.. This stock was really stronger then market, it closed @11.15 and market , in general, were weak. So i think TimSykes were more right about this stock. As i understand we have a smooth process of promoting companies drug.. I am not sure really but i will try to enter long if we will have pullback to 10$ again.
COT - still stronger then market after earnings. Earnings changed from 0.28$ loss to 0.30$ profit. In general this is still strong stock. Lets just looking for it.
HEB is awaiting FDA approval on the drug Ampligen which is in orphan status. Investors seem to be buying in before the announcement which is expected in the next week.
Now market dont give us many good patterns in pennystocks.
F - Ford is looking strong after stock offering. This is potentional buy. Can find good entry point on monday. But more better i think to find weak stock with the same volatility to make hedge deal.
I am pretty satisfied how my hedge deal with shorting CSCO and buying MSFT are working. Now have profits in this deals.
Wait for updates!
Friday, May 15, 2009
What a day?! Using magican trading style
Wooh! It was great!
Today at the US morning I longed Ford, BAC(with loss) and the shorted BAC with profit. But this trades wasnt so good as my 3 trades on HIG.
HIG - receives approval for participation in TARP today. So, this stock opened in positive zone @16.83. At first wanted to buy HIG after it will fill gap from 16.83 to 14.72. But market was really weak today @Dr. Bret indicators and i searched patterns for short. HIG was trading in minus zone and formed very pretty downside base, which gave possibilty to enter with low risks.
Waited for a moment when market breakout multiday range and then shorted HIG@14.78 . Looking attentive how it is trading @openbook and looking to TraderFeed's indicators , saw the market have enaough power to go to 14$ on HIG. I put buy limit order @14.04. After profit taking i saw this - "steenbab2:20 PM CT- Still questioning downside here; ES 3-day lows not confirmed by NASDAQ or Russell; also not confirmed by XLF, XLB, XLK. Bk l8r." . So had a big grounds to suppose that this multiday range breakout was false. On HIG i saw reverse candle combination. I saw how price reverse near small candle with large volume. As supposed that market's range breakout was false and seeing this reverse pattern @HIG + saw that demand > supply on HIG via openbook so i entered long @14.20. I put limit order to sell @14.78. This was last strong resistance. Accompanied HIG with openbook and TraderFeed's indicators. After profit taking i saw real fight bid vs ask @14.8$ lvl. Also saw that market confused on indicators so decide to be avid and to take all :-) . I caught pullback for other 20 pips and closed on last minutes of market.
Today at the US morning I longed Ford, BAC(with loss) and the shorted BAC with profit. But this trades wasnt so good as my 3 trades on HIG.
HIG - receives approval for participation in TARP today. So, this stock opened in positive zone @16.83. At first wanted to buy HIG after it will fill gap from 16.83 to 14.72. But market was really weak today @Dr. Bret indicators and i searched patterns for short. HIG was trading in minus zone and formed very pretty downside base, which gave possibilty to enter with low risks.
Waited for a moment when market breakout multiday range and then shorted HIG@14.78 . Looking attentive how it is trading @openbook and looking to TraderFeed's indicators , saw the market have enaough power to go to 14$ on HIG. I put buy limit order @14.04. After profit taking i saw this - "steenbab2:20 PM CT- Still questioning downside here; ES 3-day lows not confirmed by NASDAQ or Russell; also not confirmed by XLF, XLB, XLK. Bk l8r." . So had a big grounds to suppose that this multiday range breakout was false. On HIG i saw reverse candle combination. I saw how price reverse near small candle with large volume. As supposed that market's range breakout was false and seeing this reverse pattern @HIG + saw that demand > supply on HIG via openbook so i entered long @14.20. I put limit order to sell @14.78. This was last strong resistance. Accompanied HIG with openbook and TraderFeed's indicators. After profit taking i saw real fight bid vs ask @14.8$ lvl. Also saw that market confused on indicators so decide to be avid and to take all :-) . I caught pullback for other 20 pips and closed on last minutes of market.
Stock list for Friday
In future i will try have time to write this picks with explenation like before.
TraderFeed's levels here his blog
steenbab6:55 AM CT - $SPY targets: Pivot=89.38; R1=90.59; R2=90.99; R3=91.40; S1=88.16; S2=87.76; S3=87.35. Trading below pivot. $$
Take trade ideas from this place. They are really good.
Pennystocks
Potentional short
VNDA - 11$breakout
TEN - 5$ level
AGM - 6$ level
Potentional longs
ETC - above 2$ lvl (were miss key)
COT - 4.84$ high breakout.
FMAR - 1.5$ lvl if we will see monic panic.
CKEC - 8$ lvl
LAD - 5.25$ lvl
Other
Potentional Longs
HIG - havent nice level for entering yet.
USB - 18$ level
BCS - 16.5$ level
BAC - 11.5$ area.
Potentional Shorts
TX - 14.5$ level
CCE - 16.8 level
BK - 27.5$ level
TraderFeed's levels here his blog
steenbab6:55 AM CT - $SPY targets: Pivot=89.38; R1=90.59; R2=90.99; R3=91.40; S1=88.16; S2=87.76; S3=87.35. Trading below pivot. $$
Take trade ideas from this place. They are really good.
Pennystocks
Potentional short
VNDA - 11$breakout
TEN - 5$ level
AGM - 6$ level
Potentional longs
ETC - above 2$ lvl (were miss key)
COT - 4.84$ high breakout.
FMAR - 1.5$ lvl if we will see monic panic.
CKEC - 8$ lvl
LAD - 5.25$ lvl
Other
Potentional Longs
HIG - havent nice level for entering yet.
USB - 18$ level
BCS - 16.5$ level
BAC - 11.5$ area.
Potentional Shorts
TX - 14.5$ level
CCE - 16.8 level
BK - 27.5$ level
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Wednesday's stock list
*now i am using InvesterTech.com as a screener, coz dont filter for me stocks that have large gains/drop not on the last day period.. bug or what? doesnt matter.. using investertech now
IRF - company which announces bad q1 earning at 7May after market close. Now trading in range 13-14$. 13 or 14$ breakout of range. Trade with market confirmation.
DISH, CIEN, FITB, NCS - holding shorts from tuesday.
MNKD - This company had earnings on 4th May after market. Big sidemove and bearish pattern on D chart. Short 6$ breakout.
USB, BBT, COF - some of the weakest in financials.
F - will look for good enter point. Target 4$.
VNDA - we dont know is their new drug is so cool as stock perfomance. Look for potentional short.
BKUNA - news about acquireing company. Wait for real deal and look for news on this company.
TEN - stock from old list. Still have potentional to move to 5$ . Look to 6$ lvl.
CNO - 2.9$ breakout short. Reason of last grew - earnings.. so.. not very good pattern.
IRF - company which announces bad q1 earning at 7May after market close. Now trading in range 13-14$. 13 or 14$ breakout of range. Trade with market confirmation.
DISH, CIEN, FITB, NCS - holding shorts from tuesday.
MNKD - This company had earnings on 4th May after market. Big sidemove and bearish pattern on D chart. Short 6$ breakout.
USB, BBT, COF - some of the weakest in financials.
F - will look for good enter point. Target 4$.
VNDA - we dont know is their new drug is so cool as stock perfomance. Look for potentional short.
BKUNA - news about acquireing company. Wait for real deal and look for news on this company.
TEN - stock from old list. Still have potentional to move to 5$ . Look to 6$ lvl.
CNO - 2.9$ breakout short. Reason of last grew - earnings.. so.. not very good pattern.
Tuesday's review
DISH - We were interested in 17$ breakout. We saw nice braekout to 16.5$.
NCS - we broke strong range @6$. I entered the breakout and still holding short.
FITB - today, even on weak market at the morning we had false breakout @8$. I guess my estimation of growth was wrong. As I wrote "This stock had speculative growth after publicing stress test results". Yes, i still holding this short, even after false breakout but now i think this company is not weaker then financials overall.
BAC and AXP - was my financials to long. "Bank of America Corp. shares rose in premarket trading Tuesday on reports the bank has raised $7.3 billion by selling part of its stake in China Construction Bank to Asian investors." But on weak market open we broke lvls for which i looked as potentional buy. We didnt saw real s/p on it at weak market open. Its nice :-) .
COF - we were interested on breakout @26$. We saw beautifull move after breakout to 24. At 20-00 when market reverse COF removed from 24$. We began to find new entry point for short for 2-3 days. We saw how COF had problems to move higher at 24.6 area but wasnt enough disciplined to wait for a base/sidemove and to see market confirmation @TraderFeed indicators.
CIEN
- shorted @9.94 and still hold it. This stock was weaker then market today coz analyst rating's downgrade.
F - Ford announced about offering own stocks. It opened with a large gap down and found some support @5.5. I saw this but wasnt enough quick to enter this. On time when i looked to how market weak are - F already broke 5.5$ lvl.
INTC - we expect weak technologies in near future. So every day we have some technology companies on list to short. Today INTC didnt broke 15$ in which we were interested but this stock is still on our list.
NCS - we broke strong range @6$. I entered the breakout and still holding short.
FITB - today, even on weak market at the morning we had false breakout @8$. I guess my estimation of growth was wrong. As I wrote "This stock had speculative growth after publicing stress test results". Yes, i still holding this short, even after false breakout but now i think this company is not weaker then financials overall.
BAC and AXP - was my financials to long. "Bank of America Corp. shares rose in premarket trading Tuesday on reports the bank has raised $7.3 billion by selling part of its stake in China Construction Bank to Asian investors." But on weak market open we broke lvls for which i looked as potentional buy. We didnt saw real s/p on it at weak market open. Its nice :-) .
COF - we were interested on breakout @26$. We saw beautifull move after breakout to 24. At 20-00 when market reverse COF removed from 24$. We began to find new entry point for short for 2-3 days. We saw how COF had problems to move higher at 24.6 area but wasnt enough disciplined to wait for a base/sidemove and to see market confirmation @TraderFeed indicators.
CIEN
- shorted @9.94 and still hold it. This stock was weaker then market today coz analyst rating's downgrade.
F - Ford announced about offering own stocks. It opened with a large gap down and found some support @5.5. I saw this but wasnt enough quick to enter this. On time when i looked to how market weak are - F already broke 5.5$ lvl.
INTC - we expect weak technologies in near future. So every day we have some technology companies on list to short. Today INTC didnt broke 15$ in which we were interested but this stock is still on our list.
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