Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Random thoughts

Our portfolio feeling better last time. Now we have drodown -0,23%. This drodown coz of falling gold prices but we are rather confidence of it. We see good resistance @900$. Our fundamental view on it wasnt changed. We are happy, coz our portfolio strategy we think is working, especially that we made real investment portfolio for 1st time in life. Other our picks filling good.
Last time i have a lot of global thought/professional dreams. At first was inspired by golden boy of 80x - Mikel Milken. He made in whole word sense junk bonds market in America. I read far time ago book about Wall Street in 80x and this really fun, interesting, scarry, sometimes inspired, emotional.. Book author James Stuart, name of book - "Gang of thieves from Wall Street". We can read a story of Mikel Milken, Ivan Boeski and others. 80x - was time of avidity on Wall Street. Do you think something was changed? ))). A dream - to MAKE MARKET in Ukraine. Now RTS conquers bigger and bigger market share of exchange operations in Ukraine. Regulation fund of RTS UKraine is only 12mln UAH. But i think it will hard to get a part of RTS, coz its a lot of market, market policy power, etc. So even with money its a question. It would be really cool to make liquidity in Ukranian market, derevatives, etc.
Other professional interest is on options. Need to work a lot with numbers, graps trading options, i dont like this much but anyway i feel this is good area for making money, huge less efficient than stock market. There are must be huge more "free lunches" here. For russian language readers can give a really nice blog of rus guy - Option trader .
Eric Nayman from UkrSocBank - here his blog made calculations of Herst index with target to find trending on financial markets. With this calculations he refutes Effective Market Hypothesis, EMH. Question of EMH was always worrieng me. Sometimes i think market Efficient/not efficient depending on how we thinking about it. Somelike thought become real :-). I trust that this phenomen we have in life, so why we cant have it even in scientific researches :-) especially on researchs of social proccess. EMH investigation from classical economic theory where buyer and seller are rational. But on banal philosophy we can to refute EMH easy. Why economists acknowledge trends in economy but not acknowledge trend in stock markets? This to process are influence one on other, so if one is trendive , other have to be trendive too? This sounds crazy and very simple? Maybe i just have small skill in economy? Other look have Victor Niedernhoffer. He is statistican and calculated that there is no trends on markets, but he dont trust in EMH. He dont trusts in trends but trust in conformities to law of motion of price.
Other old professional dream is to build dynamic model in which we could see a line of how economy sectors will grow/fall, in what sequences, how they will influence one on other, etc. I found deep scientific works on it. For example - Klein-Goldberg Model, Warton economic model. But to work on this theme need solid economy, econometic background.
We didnt find a good portfolio tool on free. Dont understand why. Is it hard to programm nice portfolio tool, which will calculate coefficints automaticaly?) Bullshit. In future we will program it by ourselves and it will be on our site ))).

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