Sunday, April 19, 2009

All in one. 19.04.2009

Financial
If banks are up, why assets prices down?
Inner Workings
After reading the financial statements for many banks I can tell you that the only thing keeping them afloat is all these bailouts, legalizing of lying about asset values (aka mark to model), and non stop televised propaganda, none of which changes the fundamentals. This bear market rally isn’t going to shake most shorts because they are positioned to be solvent longer then the market can afford to be irrational, myself included.
Biggest Florida Bank - 20 days to find buyer - 14 billion BankUnited of Coral Gables
Technical picture for
JPM
GS
C
BAC
Overbought of financial sector (using MA50)
50MA and financial sector

Potentional arbitrage with OIL

picture for research
So sell OIL, buy stocks of OIL companies.
Cooper and other metals, oil
China buying activly cooper and all other industrial metals, oil - diminishing the dependence on the American bonds and dollar. But how much China can do supplies for production needs?
Also have potentional H&S for tasty short on cooper
chart of cooper

FEED

The main idea from Tim Sykes is shorting FEED
See the interview Tim Sykes on FEED

Number of US stocks above 50MA signals about overbought in short term period
bespoke

We can check this guy, whos main instrument is VIX VIX guy and see that it is also signals to short a market

RSX

We can comapre emergeny markets with US markets. We saw a powerfull down move on friday's close in US. Brasilian stock index Bovespa closed in -0,5% . LKOH, GAZP - russian blue chips closed the week in minus zone.



Real Estate

RealtyTrac agency declared the amounts of the withdrawn habitation about growth. In the first quarter a number was a record. The new coil of price-cutting can follow on the real estate.

We have a record unpleymonet numbers on California, Oregon, Carolina, Nevada, Indiana. So it can be a good idea to bet versus real estate in this states.

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