Saturday, April 25, 2009

Stress test banks will need to raise $1 trillion

US banks will receive preliminary results of their "stress tests" today. From some of the data coming in all is not well in the garden patch. On an overall basis, while banks are showing surface profits to the public, their books are deteriorating in the back room. At the biggest lenders, bad assets -- those not generating interest -- have tripled. Let's look at some numbers:

* PNC Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: PNC) saw non performing assets jump five fold.
* US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) had bad their assets quadrupled.
* 13 of the largest banks' bad assets increased an average of 169%.
* To cushion further losses lenders will need to raise another $1 trillion.

* The KBW index of 24 companies declined 24% this year.
* Commercial loans in default jumped 43% in the first quarter to $65.9 billion from $46 billion a year earlier.
* According to Real Capital Analytics Inc., property values have fallen at least 30% since 2007.
* JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) had non performing assets jump 185% in the past year to $14.7 billion.
* Bank of American Corp (NYSE: BAC) said bad assets increased 229% to $25.7 billion .
* Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) also had bad assets jump 128% to $27.4 billion.
* Wells Fargo Group Inc (NYSE: WFC) has their bad assets jump 180% to $12.6 billion.

Now, against the backdrop of the above data, banks will have to go to investors to raise the cash they need to cushion their their capital against further losses. The key will be whether or not investors will see new capital efforts to raise money as worth their while or will they shun the banks' needs.

Do you believe that banks are still safe?

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